Stock price when the opinion was issued
MG has a decent enough balance sheet, with net debt about 1.6X annual cash flow.
Dividend payout is in the 25% range and we would not expect a cut.
Three years is a long forecast time, but analysts show close to $10 in EPS in 2026, so if that is realized the stock is very cheap and is likely to do better.
But it has had a series of bad announcements, and we would expect the company to be in the penalty box for at least several months now.
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Growth has slowed down and profitability has been sliding since 2018. Its valuation of 7X forward earnings reflects a lot of these concerns, and it trades just above book value at 1.1X price to book. Cash flows are mostly used to pay its dividend, and it has been a net issuer of debt over the past two years. We do not like its recent momentum, following a string of weak earnings results. We would prefer to wait until next earnings to assess if a floor can be put into its price, but for now the cheap valuation could become even cheaper if results continue to disappoint.
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Under valued given current stock price. Expecting stronger sales ahead. Auto part sector not favorable right now, but is a good time to buy. Car business presents many customers with aging auto fleet in North America (will require replacement parts). Expecting earnings to rise, especially with EV opportunity.
Tariffs are impacted them, but the auto parts sector is already out of favour. EV sales have levelled off. Magna lower their guidance again and again last year. They're nearing a bottom now. Prefers Linamar for its much lower EV of 6x, and they have diverse businesses, like agricultural equipment.