Stockchase Opinions

Jamie Murray Mastercard Inc. MA-N BUY Aug 27, 2024

Visa vs. Mastercard

Prefers Mastercard for its higher growth rate over the last 5 years. Visa sees more regulatory challenges in the US and UK, and are more exposed to debit cards which is seeing regulation pushback on those fees. MA is more exposed to European markets where the cash-to-card conversion is still going, offering growth. Both companies enjoy great margins and are layering on extra services. A slowing consumer may slow growth rates from 12% to 8-10% in revenues, a slight, but not major headwind.

$474.990

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 25/24, Up 15%)

(Note the short timeframe.) MA and Visa make up the best unregulated duopoly in the world. MA has less debit exposure, which is where Visa got dinged. Still a reasonable valuation.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Good company. Fairly substantial move. Often in an up market, stocks that have performed well keep that momentum going. Bit expensive. Wait for a few % pullback for an entry point. In the right space, and making good use of technology.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 16/23, Up 25.15%)All-time highs.

Likes it still. Long-term, secular growth in digital payments. Cyclical growth due to cross-border travel and e-commerce. About 15% earnings growth rate. Technicals continue to look good. May benefit from DOJ action against Visa.

Retail sales are hitting new highs, despite worries about consumer turning over. Interest rates moving lower is a benefit to the consumer and, therefore, to a name like MA.

BUY

They delivered a good quarter a few weeks ago. Long-term secular growth lies ahead.

TOP PICK
Use the CDR.

Increased demand for credit cards and online shopping will continue. Partnership with NFLX focuses on live events. None of these partnerships will generate a ton of revenue, but it's ingenious how they're gaining access to the consumer. Yield is 0.5%.

(Analysts’ price target is $564.73)
BUY

Trading at a high 32x forward PE, but shares are near 52-week highs. Is growing around 15% in earnings despite a challenging macro. Cross-border travel continues to beat expectations. Consumers are also seeing higher wages to fuel their spending.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 25/24, Up 21%)

Has owned for ~10 years. Excellent business that will continue to own. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 11/24, Up 21%)

33x forward PE, a bit pricey but it's a premium name. Secular growth with growing electronic payments and rising consumer spending. Clear uptrend of higher highs and higher lows, 200-day and 200-week MAs are moving higher.

TOP PICK

Capitalizing on shift to digital payments. Increasing cross-border travel helps names like this, as cross-border transactions are high margin. Fintech and AI are unlocking areas of revenue. Interesting partnerships and acquisitions. Cashflow remains high. Yield is 1.0%.

Exceeding expectations on quarterly results. Seeing ~13% annual earnings growth going forward. Shares are down 10-11%, attractive entry point.

(Analysts’ price target is $627.33)
BUY

Visa and Mastercard both have no credit risk and are doing incredibly well.