Michael Hakes - CFA, MBA Mastercard Inc. MA-N TOP PICK Aug 02, 2024

Trading at a high 32x forward PE, but shares are near 52-week highs. Is growing around 15% in earnings despite a challenging macro. Cross-border travel continues to beat expectations. Consumers are also seeing higher wages to fuel their spending.

Has owned for ~10 years. Excellent business that will continue to own. 

33x forward PE, a bit pricey but it's a premium name. Secular growth with growing electronic payments and rising consumer spending. Clear uptrend of higher highs and higher lows, 200-day and 200-week MAs are moving higher.

Capitalizing on shift to digital payments. Increasing cross-border travel helps names like this, as cross-border transactions are high margin. Fintech and AI are unlocking areas of revenue. Interesting partnerships and acquisitions. Cashflow remains high. Yield is 1.0%.

Exceeding expectations on quarterly results. Seeing ~13% annual earnings growth going forward. Shares are down 10-11%, attractive entry point.

Visa and Mastercard both have no credit risk and are doing incredibly well.

Down because everything's down. Concern that in an economic slowdown people will be slower to pay off credit cards, and there will be less travel. Doesn't have the credit risks that banks do. 

Visa is his favourite, multiple is a few points cheaper than MA. Debit card business growing faster than MA, and greater European and international tentacles.

Forward PE ~31x, and it will always be at a premium because the space has very few competitors. Stock's near oversold at this point, slightly below 200-day. 200-day MA and 200-week MA are both still trending higher, so long-term this name is fine.

Right now, market is trading on news not fundamentals. This name is 16% below recent highs. Buy now and you'll be happy 6-24 months out. Economic slowdown will affect consumer. Who knows what tariffs will look like down the road?

He owns MA instead of Visa, mainly due to its slightly better upside and longer runway. Upside in low 20% range.

Not as constructive on it, simply because the valuation's been reset. Still a core part of his portfolio, and has been for a decade.