Mastercard Inc.MACOMMENTJan 09, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 02, 2026. Market Open.
Both are phenomenal businesses. Comparable on valuation and share price performance. If you own one, don't switch.
His clients own Visa, and have for a very long time. Makes the most sense for him as more payments become digitized and V captures more market share. It's the largest payment network, so its profitability is a bit higher on margins. Bit north of 20x PE, FCF yield north of 4%. Attractive valuation for an essential business.
Down 5% YOY. Overhang has been potential disruption in digital payments. Still likes it. Benefiting from the broader theme of moving from cash to credit. Feels it'll come out still looking good. Growing revenues 10-11%. Probably 15% earnings growth. Valuation not stretched at 22-23x PE. He's positive.
They are among the highest-quality businesses in the world. They get knocked around occasionally over concerns about interchange fees or PayPal or something threatening them. There's always something. If you own, you've done very well, and have a long-term horizon. Doesn't prefer one. You can own both. Buy it and forget it.
Just as with MA (which he also owns), Visa dominates fees charged and, therefore, controls its earnings. Very few players can upend them. Pursuing more technology advances. Visa trades at 27x forward PE, growing at probably 15+%. Very good valuation for a company with only 1 major competitor.
Visa has been weak technically, not participating in recent market moves. Still above 200-day MA today, and that's moving higher. Up 14% in last 12 months, which isn't that bad ;)
This year, there have been fears of stablecoins and cryptos displacing both Visa and Mastercard However, both companies are too entrenched with merchants and customers to displace. There are few incentives for consumers to adopt stablecoin. He continues to like them.
MasterCard (MA-N) or Visa (V-N)? Neither one of these is cheap. He keeps waiting for an entry point and keeps not getting one. Trading at 32X earnings, which is pretty expensive. Both of these companies have a tremendous moat around operations. So well entrenched around the world that it is very difficult to compete. Because of this, they do deserve a premium. In his view, Visa is probably the better one in terms of its line-up of banks that it is associated with and its penetration of world markets.