Lightstream Resources (LTS.TO) Buy, Sell or…

Lightstream Resources (LTS.TO)

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WAIT

Met with management about 3 weeks ago. Believes there is hope. This is just about the quarter – this or next quarter. Anyone that is in southeast Saskatchewan has had problems drilling because things are so wet. It is delaying production. They have a lot of drilling and a higher than average decline rate. Thinks third and forth quarters will be good for them and stock now yields over 6%.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

New in the Pembina/Cardium area and with newer productions you have higher declines. Theirs is about 40%. They have to spend a lot more money to maintain production. Weather created problems for them last year. Would like it at $16.

BUY

Just started buying in the $17-$18 range. Comfortable that things are turning. Will probably have a sloppy Q2 because of weather conditions. Expect they will exit the year at production rates that meet expectations. Looking for $21-$22 by year end. 5.5% yield.

WEAK BUY

Has been chipping away at this one below $20. His view was that if he were going to own a Bakken play with significant scale, it was going to be Crescent Point (CPG-T). Saw Petrobakken as having fringier, lower quality assets with higher declines. Paid too much to get into the Cardium play in Alberta. More attractive in the high teens.

DON'T BUY

Shed his position awhile ago because he thinks production growth has topped out.

DON'T BUY

Compared it to CPG 2 years ago and something wasn’t right so he has left it alone. He is going to take another look.

WAIT

Bottom line is improving with high commodity prices. Are in the penalty box because of disappointments. Thy keep setting the bar too high and can’t get over it. They are getting it together but it is too early to be an aggressive buyer.

WATCH

Started as a Bakken oil player in Saskatchewan and have now diversified into Alberta. Stock was in a downtrend for quite some time but now stabilizing. Valuation is not too bad on a cash flow basis. Fighting some declines in some of their Bakken production and she is monitoring to see if she will invest in it.

HOLD

Involved in the Bakken and the Cardium in Alberta. He prefers Crescent Point (CPG-T) in the Bakken. Numbers have not been that great. Probably a good long play in the Cardium.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Match 15/10. Down 14.72%.) Was incredibly wet in both quarters in SE Saskatchewan last year and all drilling got delayed. Started drilling again in the fall and were 11 for 11 by December. Still a Hold.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 16/09. Down 29.17%.) Sold his holdings.

HOLD

Have not performed well lately. Paid a lot of money for companies without a lot of resources. There are questions if current management is the team to take it to the next level. A “show me” story. Decline rate in production is about 40%-50%, which is very high. 4.5% yield. Starting to look interesting.

BUY

Made some acquisitions and he feels they paid a fair price. Decent dividend. Good Buy at this price. Great growth potential as well as some takeover prospects.

WEAK BUY

Cheap and looks like an attractive entry point but has been operationally disappointing. Not as good a landmass in the Bakken as Crescent Point (CPG-T). You could Buy and possibly have 15%-20% upside over the course of the next year but he is skeptical.

COMMENT

Originally started off in the Bakken area and then bought into the Cardium play in Alberta. Initial numbers were disappointing. Recently looks like they have got the right technique. (Prefers Crescent Point (CPG-T), which is also into the Cardium.)

Showing 121 to 135 of 189 entries

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Lightstream Resources (LTS.TO)