Stockchase Opinions

Paul MacDonald Eli Lilly & Co. LLY-N COMMENT Jan 27, 2025

The question was on buying the stock, LLY, or buying the single stock ETF for Eli Lilly which is LLYH. High income and single stock ETF's are somewhat new to the Canadian marketplace. This type of ETF is a way for Canadians to own a U.S. stock listed on the TSX. With LLYH you get exposure to LLY on a Canadian exchange as well as monthly cash flow from options they write on it. So basically it is an individual stock with an option strategy. Also the ETF is a lower priced Canadian product with tax implications. LLAT is the same thing but with more leverage. You give up some upside on the stock but get a big cash flow.

$808.170

Stock price when the opinion was issued

biotechnology pharmaceutical
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DON'T BUY

He, too, was looking at defensive healthcare names to avoid tariffs. But not this one. Earnings and cashflows have exploded on weight loss, but so has the valuation. Competitors are coming. Lots of pressure in US to reduce drug prices.

Consider ABT or ALC.

BUY

Owns this and competitor Nvo Nordisk, but prefers LLY. The weight-loss drugs have more potential than only weight loss, as they move from injectibles to pill form. The drug hasn't plateaued yet. It's the only drug stock that has performed like the Mag 7.

Unspecified

He owns Novo but Eli Lilly is a great company in the sweet spot of an obesity drug and other drugs as well. It has done well for the last little while. Manufacturing drugs is not easy and takes lots of time from approval to production. It is a huge franchise and can grow quite a lot.

HOLD

He owns a small holding. Likes their growth profile from their weight-loss drug; they will continue to take market share from Novo Nordisk. The big news this week was that drug shortages were over. They lowered the price too. But shares are expensive at  20x PE on 2028 numbers--expensive for a pharmaceutical. It's had a big run, so he's not adding shares, but trimming.

BUY
Will invest $27 billion in manufacturing sites.

Like TJX, their momentum is not unwinding, and shares will push to new all-time highs. It's on a streak now, of 7 straight days, that we haven't seen in 2 years.

BUY

Her best performer this month, with revenues growing 40%. Excellent balance sheet, drug pipeline and managers. She just entered this and will buy on dips.

HOLD

This got expensive, so he reduced his holding at 50x PE, now at 35x. Is still overweight this, because he believes in the GLP franchise. Expects strong revenue growth over 2 years.

TOP PICK

Loves healthcare for value and defense. Diabetes and obesity drugs continue to drive sales. Other new drugs boost earnings growth forecast. Sees 25% upside from here. Ranks 10/10 on fundamentals. Yield is 0.72%.

(Analysts’ price target is $1001.48)
BUY

Hold both LLY and NOVO? No. Choose one or the other. LLY sells more diverse drugs and more North American focused.

BUY

It's one of the least-tariffed, least-dangerous stocks though the price is high. He sees upside.