Stock price when the opinion was issued
The more successful of the GLP-1 stocks compared to NVO. Decent entry point. Trades in the 30s on forward PE, so there's a strong expectation of prescription growth; every reason to believe that's going to happen.
Be cautious on position size; don't be aggressive. Stock was down 10% yesterday because NVO made a deal with CVS to become its prime recommended product for obesity. So NVO is starting to compete more on price.
Best among the weight-loss drugs, more effective than its peers. Also, the oral version will be a game-changer. LLY is gaining market share as its manufacturing ramps up. Shares are flat and need a catalyst, possibly on Aug. 7 with earnings. Their oncology platform is also doing well. He expects their revenues to double by 2030, based on 25-30% compounded growth.
A lot of the move down happened this week. Numbers were good -- earnings and revenue beat, guidance was good. Market really homed in on obesity pill disappointment (slightly less efficacy than a competitor's, 10% dropped out due to side effects). Now trades at 24x PE, with 19% growth.
Very cheap, but sentiment has become difficult and challenging. Long term, the demand for diabetes and obesity drugs is still there and will continue to grow. Industry-leading Alzheimer's drug in pipeline as well. Fortress-like balance sheet, really great cashflow.
The catalyst would be if they can deliver an oral weight-loss drug and he expects so. He agrees with today's upgrade.