John Stephenson
Nordstrom Inc
JWN-N
HOLD
Oct 13, 2015
A great company, one of the leading retailers out there. Very good e-commerce platform. Growing sales. But they are going through a high investment cycle. They traditionally trade at around a 15X forward multiple of earnings, and now are close to 20 or 21 times, so they are on the expensive side.
There is suffering going on in the high-end retail space. People are adjusting their buying patterns downwards. People who used to shop here might go to a lesser priced retailer.
Likes the major US retailers like this one. Stock is very, very strong. But his “go to” name in that retail space would be Macys (M-N) that has a much better valuation, cheaper peg ratio and better growth
When you compare this one to its peers, it is an outperformer, one of the few. Retail is a difficult space right now, so if you had to pick one, this would probably be the place to go. The trend is up.
Bullish or bearish market outlook? He doesn't see 5 interest rate hikes this year + 1 in 2023, like Goldman predicts, not with what's happening globally. He never thought this would be a quick military incursion by Russia. That said, that doesn't matter if an investor is long-term. Buy stocks on dips like this? Absolutely. But buy high-flying stocks with 55+ PE's? No. Be disciplined. Don't buy a stock which reported great earnings and expect that stock to keep rising. Nordstrom just exploded to the upside on a strong earnings report; so sell it and don't sit on those gains.
A great company, one of the leading retailers out there. Very good e-commerce platform. Growing sales. But they are going through a high investment cycle. They traditionally trade at around a 15X forward multiple of earnings, and now are close to 20 or 21 times, so they are on the expensive side.