Stockchase Opinions

Colin Stewart Greenspace Brands Inc JTR-X TOP PICK Oct 26, 2017

It is a great business and one of the only publicly traded organic food companies. They have great distribution through L-T and EMP-T etc. Organic brands are gaining more market share. He thinks eventually they will be bought. It has come off recently but not for any particular reason. He is adding at these levels. (Analysts’ target: $2.10).

$1.300

Stock price when the opinion was issued

food services
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

COMMENT

A really interesting company. Had an announcement out today about their brands starting to gain traction. Expects this means that in the next quarter or 2, you are probably going to see a ramp up in earnings. This company has specialty organic brands. They’ve been basically buying the brands and integrating them into their distribution network. What he would like to see in order to take the stock from the level it's been, to a significantly higher level, it is for them to translate revenue to the bottom line, so that we would see a higher earnings number. We are probably not going to see that, but when it does happen, the stock should really take a jump. At that point in time, they would probably get taken out.

COMMENT

There is nothing comparable to this in the market, which is one reason he likes it. An organic foods business. They’ve done a great job of acquiring and building brands, and getting great shelf space in some of the grocery stores such as Walmart and Loblaw's. Trading at a pretty significant discount on Price to Sales to their US comparables, and there is nothing comparable in the Canadian market. A unique way for Canadian investor to get exposure to the ongoing growth of organic consumption by consumers.

DON'T BUY

He met the company a few years ago and follows it on the side. They acquired mum and pop kinds of brands and are trying to consolidate the industry. They are up against giants in each space. They will have to invest heavily in advertizing. He passed on it.

BUY

He stills owns it in his funds, likes the company. Met with the CEO and thinks they are doing all the right things. He thinks that small-cap Canadian stocks are generally out of favor and this stock is suffering from that broader problem. The stock is not widely followed. They are also being penalized for lower EBITDA margins than expected. Positives: the company is aggressively investing in its brands and growing rapidly. They are in the right spaces--as organic foods. A comparable company in the US would trade at 3 to 5x revenue and Greenspace is trading at just over 1x. He thinks this is very cheap. If it can’t grow into its own multiple, he thinks it might be taken over. (Analysts’ price target is 2.37$)

DON'T BUY

This is an organic food player. He owned this for a long time. They did everything they said they were going to do. The stock went up, close to $1.70 and he exited most of it and sold the recent after they announced their recent acquisition of Galaxy Nutrition in the US, which will double their size. He doesn’t see synergies in the acquisitions and thinks they might have overpaid.

HOLD

A small micro-cap name that he holds that has been disappointing. They have done a good job on recent acquisitions, however, he has yet to see margin expansion. On a price to sales level it trades cheaply, but on an EBIDA basis it is too expensive. They will eventually get taken out he thinks.

HOLD

It is a well run business. They have been pretty successful. A lot of the products have done well. They are getting distribution and growing the revenue line but also ramping up costs. A recent recall was not a big deal. Over time there will be value creation there.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 27/17, Down 32%) Excellent brands. He cut back his holdings recently. They made some acquisitions and have not integrated them as well as hoped and it impacted profitability. They grew revenue and grew their brands. If they make operational improvements, there is a lot of upside.

WAIT

Owns a small position. Low margins. They've done a very good job with distribution and getting their revenues up, but he needs to see their margins rise. They're too low. He won't add to his position until then. They have some good products.

WEAK BUY

Doesn't know this company. Loves the space. Names with a good name, like "green" move well. They produce organic foods, and people are looking to eat healthier. Fancy name. Fancy products.