Stockchase Opinions

Noah Blackstein, B.A., CFA Johnson Controls JCI-N BUY Apr 10, 2002

Auto sector is turning around.
$93.050

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Automotive
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BUY ON WEAKNESS

On her perspective buy list. She wants to see it a little cheaper. A well run company. She would wait for another 5% pullback.

COMMENT

A multifaceted industrial company. Recently announced that they want to merge with Tyco International (TYC-N) spinoff. Looking at industrials here is probably not the best idea, but if you believe the global economy is going to improve and pick up a little, then you should be looking at some industrial names in your portfolio.

SELL

This is involved in the auto sector, and the auto sector has very, very strong seasonality. Historically the best time to own this is between February until around May. Stocks like this reached their seasonal end right now, and the auto sector in general has a tendency to come under significant pressure. It looks like a great opportunity to take some good profits. Dividend yield of about 2.5%.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Spinning off their automotive division, but is still mostly an automotive supply company. The whole auto supply sector looks cheap. They all trade at low PE’s, but have all had massive earnings growth over the last 5 years. They are somewhat cyclical. You have to buy these when earnings are weak and multiples are higher, and not buy them after a massive run up of earnings when you think they look cheap. Thinks earnings are peaking for the sector and he is looking for declining earnings, and would look for a better entry price.

TOP PICK

This does fire safety products, but is also kind of into the automotive industry. It is driven by industrial seasonality. This has had a bit of consolidation since July, and is now testing that. Ideally you would like to see it bounce off of that, but he is taking his chances on it because fundamentally it is a sound company. (Analysts’ price target is $49.31.)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 30/16. Up 2.69%.) Industrials tend to do well seasonally out through the spring. This company sells to the auto sector, which seems to be reasonably positive. As long as the trend line doesn’t break, he is inclined to hold this, and will probably hold it until the spring.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Feb 6/17, Down 2%) He expects that it will probably get back to $42-$45. Typically auto does well until the end of May.

BUY
They make HVAC and security systems. JCI is exposed to non-residential construction which scares some, but nearly half their business comes from servicing existing equipment--a steady stream of revenues. It trades under 17x PE, a 14% growth rate and 1.2% PEG ratio.
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Is down 15% this month because cyclicals are out of fashion, but the market didn't like their quarter earlier this month. They slightly missed revenues and earnings growth. And guidance next quarter was light and trimmed their full-year organic sales forecast. Not a major disappoint, so why fall 15%? That's too much. EPS is supposed to grow from $3 in 2022 to $4 in 2024. Not performing as well as Carrier, but these shares are too low.

WATCH

Lacks growth. Shares are down 12% this year, but trades cheaper than peers like Carrier and Trane. Worth considering at least.