Kevin SimpsonIBM Common StockIBMBUYMar 08, 2024

Their last earnings had one of the largest gaps ever in their history which could signal further problems in the company. Wait to see them sort out of their problems. Would not buy this dip.

We had these stocks that were growing off of AI, and they've been delivering spectacular growth. But they've also had spectacular increases in share prices, which becomes a potential source of volatility. 

The question is whether valuations are too high given projected growth? As we've seen here, some of the price adjustments can be pretty abrupt.

Previous support was just taken out. It could keep falling. Maybe it will consolidate.

Is -18% from highs and trades at 18x PE. They create mission-critical software.

Has done better than peer consulting companies. Chart appears to be rolling over. But in his industry, "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM".

It's a screaming buy, down 17% this year. Trades at 20x forward PE. Then, there's quantum computing, which has a $1.3 trillion addressable market from now to 2030. The CEO has done a great job. 

Big into AI, huge into quantum. Checks all the boxes. Last earnings (April 22) were a bit of an execution slipup. He has a full position right now (4.5%). Buy here, add around $270, and again at $255. Yield is 2.43%.

There's such a backlog in the data centre build that we're seeing a huge boost in earnings and net income. After its recent run, this will keep going, but at some point the music will stop, though not anytime soon. Would buy only a tranche now then buy more during a dip.

It was doing well, rising above $300, the past year, but is now consolidating around $240. If it continues here, it will go sideways. Falling below $235 is not good, while rising past $350 is encouraging.

Growing from multiple angles, yet valuation still reasonable. Stable and embedded business complemented by new growth drivers. Consulting business helps companies implement AI, and that's where the real spending is. Strong in hybrid cloud, managing data across environments. Quantum computing already being used with potential for energy, healthcare, manufacturing. 

Drop in February due to sector rotation and profit taking. Trades ~19x PE, attractive. Sees 30% upside from here to ~$317. Yield is 2.85%.

He trimmed this after exhaustion in the tech trade currently. He rotated into Microsoft which fell from $550 to $400. In terms of software, the baby is being thrown out with the bath water. He doesn't expect AI to show profit in the next quarter, but like MSFT long term.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Still likes. Fundamentals remain strong. Pullback is attractive entry point. Core story remains hybrid cloud/AI. Emerging as a leader in quantum. Continued earnings growth. About 28% upside from here.

Hold on to it. At 4-5% growth, in the ballpark of the top players. He doesn't know its exposure to robotics. Street's pretty positive on it, about 20% upside. At 20x PE, not an aggressive valuation. Margins expected to stay healthy -- 60% gross margins, net income margins of close to 20%.

Is just reported strong software numbers and a full-year forecast. Is a cheap stock.

Annual recurring revenue is growing double-digits. Their report next week should be good.