Ian FungIBM Common StockIBMDON'T BUYFeb 21, 2020

It was doing well, rising above $300, the past year, but is now consolidating around $240. If it continues here, it will go sideways. Falling below $235 is not good, while rising past $350 is encouraging.

Growing from multiple angles, yet valuation still reasonable. Stable and embedded business complemented by new growth drivers. Consulting business helps companies implement AI, and that's where the real spending is. Strong in hybrid cloud, managing data across environments. Quantum computing already being used with potential for energy, healthcare, manufacturing. 

Drop in February due to sector rotation and profit taking. Trades ~19x PE, attractive. Sees 30% upside from here to ~$317. Yield is 2.85%.

He trimmed this after exhaustion in the tech trade currently. He rotated into Microsoft which fell from $550 to $400. In terms of software, the baby is being thrown out with the bath water. He doesn't expect AI to show profit in the next quarter, but like MSFT long term.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Still likes. Fundamentals remain strong. Pullback is attractive entry point. Core story remains hybrid cloud/AI. Emerging as a leader in quantum. Continued earnings growth. About 28% upside from here.

Hold on to it. At 4-5% growth, in the ballpark of the top players. He doesn't know its exposure to robotics. Street's pretty positive on it, about 20% upside. At 20x PE, not an aggressive valuation. Margins expected to stay healthy -- 60% gross margins, net income margins of close to 20%.

Is just reported strong software numbers and a full-year forecast. Is a cheap stock.

Annual recurring revenue is growing double-digits. Their report next week should be good.

Has tripled since late 2022, and up 40% the past 12 months. They have terrific AI, cloud and consulting businesses. Also have quantum computing. Sales are up under a fine CEO. The rallied hard last October, but has pulled back. Its chart has double-bottomed and is rebounding like crazy. It's broken out of its 50-day moving average this week. Resistance is at $315, then the next at $335-345. There's more upside with the next leg higher coming. Momentum (MACD indicator) just made a bullish crossover, a positive signal.  The On Balance Volume too. The RSI looks good, and can go higher. He liked their last quarter. 

The PE is cheap. Still a buy.

It has had quite a run with all the AI buzz. With it you have the same trade as you have with NVIDIA. It is a good business and will capture a solid portion of the software spend on AI. Ultimately though, how far away from commercialization is AI. The easy money has been made and IBM is over-valued at these levels.

Benefited from uptake in AI. Multiple's expanded to 18-19x forward PE, up from low double digits. Market's recognizing improved growth outlook. 

In that consulting space she'd prefer, and owns, GIB.A. Its valuation is much better.

Is up 15% this year. The CEO is doing a fine job. Trades at only 22x PE.

Purchase of Red Hat really put them in the cloud and data centre business, saved them. Over last couple of years, execution of business plan was perfect. But more recently, especially in Q2 earnings, execution faltered. He's been adding in the $240 area. 12-month price target of $314.

It has transformed into a hybrid cloud and AI company. Software does remain the engine. Has $7.5 billion in AI related business. Margins are quietly improving with strong cash flow. Yield is 2.7%. It is a real contender in the quantum race. She sees 18% upside potential and in the longer run of 12 months 27%.           Buy 8  Hold 10 Sell 2

It's not true that they are stodgy, old tech. They've gotten into AI with Watson, and done an alliance with Meta. What's holding them down in consulting, which is low-growth. He sold it recently. There are more predictable stocks like Meta and Amazon.