Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA HBP Nymex Oil Bear+ ETF HOD-T COMMENT Jun 16, 2014

Talking about the next month trading this is okay as a speculative buy. Watch the oil prices.

Most ETFs you can hold forever unless they use leveraged. This is a double down for oil. You could get a drag of 15% just on the rebalancing. There are a lot of moving parts here. 2-3 weeks at a time, if you are taking a short term view, you can do fine. He is bearish on oil but don’t get into this one.

Oil does well until end of September. Crude oil has gone parabolic, which is unusual. When it hits the peak, look out for the stock market. Everything is positive, don’t short yet, but watch for a move to the downside by the end of August. These vehicles work well when you are in a very strong trend.

Thinks keystone ultimately gets done. Thinks nothing will get done until after the 2014 mid-term US elections. 2017 is when we are talking about these things coming on stream. This is a double bear so for short term trades. There is a reasonable trade here. If we break about above $110 this is not something you want to hold.

Double bear ETF for crude oil. Price of oil is already starting to break down. This is a reasonable trade. If we get back to $105 then something has changed with oil.

Double the inverse return of oil. He believes that oil is really close to the bottom. He would take profit here.

A short-term way of betting against oil. A very leveraged situation, 2 to 1. This is for speculators, not investors, and is quite a bit higher risk.

Will both spike when the pandemic is over? Will both spike when the pandemic is over? HOU-T is the upward moving ETF. It is also a two times ETF. The HOU-T is certainly the side to be on today. If the virus news is true then there will be a lot of pent up demand for oil. But he is not in favour of leveraging. These are intended for day traders.