
TSE:HEXO
Doesn't own any of the marijuana producers, as the fundamentals don't warrant the prices. There will be a day of reckoning, which has probably already started. Large producers peaked before legalization, the small ones peaked last January/February. Reality check when these companies start missing sales and EBITDA, and the air pocket beneath the share price collapses, with a 50-60-70% downside. He'll reconsider when the dust settles, but that day is not today. (Analysts’ price target is $9.25)
A billion dollar market cap that trades on 12 times earnings – low for this space, which can see 30 times earnings. It has lower cost production in Quebec and good labour rates. They sell a spray oil that is innovative, which provides for faster onset – and has been award winning. They have a joint venture with Molson-Coors.
The chart looks decent and volume has been strong. You could add to your position with a $4.00 stop. Towards the end of the year, when real earnings occur, there will be a market re-evaluation of this space in general. He would not invest in this space for his clients. (Analysts’ price target is $8.50)
Given the M&A lens, if he was long in the space he would want the names that were trading below the average. This one is 8.5 times. The average is north of 16. This is a more attractive name. The medical side is interesting. He is not sure how the medical market is going to shake out once you get full recreational. This is better than being on pain killers.
They are significantly cheaper than the bigger peers in Canada, yet will have production the same size when they are built. They have lower wage rates than others so their production costs are lower. They have a multiyear agreement with the Quebec Cannabis authority so they have a supply arrangement in place. They have already gone into other product areas. (Analysts’ target: $7.42).
We get confused that a Canadian company going to U.S. will create a U.S. audience, but suppose America doesn't like your company? He needs this to break above $7 and he expects it'll face resistance at $8.