
NYSE:HD
Likes this. Recently reported earnings. Fought through the weather issue and actually had a very, very strong quarter. 35% and trending towards 40%. ROE is fantastic. Beautifully positioned for the nascent housing recovery that we are in. Thinks there is a long way to grow. Trading at about 18X earnings and growing at about 20% year-over-year.
US home industry went through tremendous restructuring. This is one of the companies that came out much stronger. Improved spending on renovation. There was a breakout yesterday in the homebuilding ETF. Most consumer related sectors over the last 6 weeks consolidated and then picked up over the last few days.
2 important factors for this company. GDP growth and the housing recovery. Both of these metrics are going to continue to improve in 2014. Company has ongoing initiatives and increased productivity so there will be margin improvements. They want to pay out 50% of their profits in dividends, which they are doing, so she anticipates dividend increases will continue. Any excess free cash flow will be used to repurchase stock. Have a very good record of shrinking their shareholder base. Dividend yield of 1.91%.
With falling inflation and strong cash flows the consumer is in better shape. There is a slowly recovering housing market in the US. Returned 19 Billion dollars to shareholders over the last two years and more than that to come in the next two years through share buybacks and dividend increases. Shareholder friendly management.
Sold a Feb $65 Put and collected $2 in premium. Wants to reinvest the $2 in buying an upside Call with the same Feb expiry. What price would you recommend? With the $65 Put, the caller has taken on an obligation to buy the stock at $65. The stock is above that price, so he won’t have to buy, because no one is going to make him buy it at a price higher than what they can sell it at in the market. To leverage the $2, he would probably buy an $80 Feb Call.
Executed very well in terms of spinning off businesses and retooling a lot of the stores. They are not necessarily leveraged to new home sales but more to existing home sales as people redecorate, etc. At this level he doesn’t think valuation multiples are going much higher from here. If they report a quarter or same-store sales and stumble, this stock is going to get hammered.
Would not buy at this level. The stock has had a great run. You get renovations as well as new home building benefiting them. It will come down eventually. Should do well as people start to repair after winter storm damage. No rush to sell. Best in class. There will be a lot of pent up demand.