Stockchase Opinions

Michael Sprung Hydro One H-T DON'T BUY May 30, 2018

He thinks the Ontario election could cause some danger. This has been a political football for many years. There has been mismanagement of the hydro assets, which has resulted in dramatically higher rates over the past 12 years. Are you really buying a private company, when the government still owns over 40%. They have been attempting a US acquisition, which may face delay if there is a new government. Shareholders have a chance of being treated poorly following the election. An NDP government may look to purchase the privately held shares but would not likely re-purchase them at the issued price of $20.50 per share.

$19.580

Stock price when the opinion was issued

electrical utilities
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HOLD

It's a Hold, not a Sell, because there don't seem to be a lot of reasons for it to go down. Catching a tailwind as a bond proxy with bonds in rally mode. Good and safe dividend, will probably grow, well supported by cashflow. Well managed. Not a Buy, as there are better ideas. He owns FTS instead, as it's larger and more diversified.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Rising interest rates putting pressure on stock. Company uses substantial debt. Analyst estimates very broad. Would recommend waiting to buy when share price falls. Share price not low enough. Good company, with stable earnings - just not priced correctly. 

TOP PICK

The stock chart is presenting opportunity to break out. Technical pattern is great for investors. "Higher lows" indicating a new high for the stock price. Doesn't believe rate hikes will occur - good tailwind for the business. Boring business that is good for shareholder value. 

DON'T BUY
QBR.B vs. H for 3-5 years.

Hydro One is too expensive to buy here. QBR.B is in a very challenged space with the 4 well-capitalized players. Whole telecom industry is cheap, QBR.B will work over time, decent dividend.

Gun to the head, he'd pick QBR.B. No gun, putting capital into a dividend stock for 3-5 years, he'd pick neither and put money into MFC instead utilizing the Canadian dividend tax credit.

BUY

Trades at a higher PE than its peers, but they execute very well. Shares continue to grind higher.

DON'T BUY

Very stable. Most assets are in Ontario, whereas she likes diversification of jurisdiction. Traditionally Ontario has not been the best regulator, and it's at the mercy of just that one regulator. Prefers EMA.

WEAK BUY

Likes it. Decent pullback. US tariffs may not be positive for a stock like this, but let's just wait till January 20 to see what happens. Decent surplus of electricity in Ontario, which can impact prices to the downside. If you foresee volatility and lower interest rates, not a bad choice.

Not a growth stock. Pays a dividend, but not the highest. Stable company.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 12/24, Up 11%)

It broke out since mid-July but has been sideways lately. As long as the stock holds at lows around $44, fine, but if it breaks below that, there will likely be more downside.

PARTIAL SELL

People are nervous about the uncertainty out there and are looking for safety. But the relative strength of the defensives is not good. Over the past few weeks, he's reduced his defensive positioning. He's focusing on pricing power and dividend growth. Recognize that the market's showing us that there's more economic strength out there than people think.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 12/24, Up 25%)

Same as Metro a year ago, when it was poised to break out, and he wanted exposure to defensives and dividends. Price momentum was improving a year ago. A long-term hold. Is down 10% this year as portfolio manager sell defence to buy offence. This is now attractive.