Stockchase Opinions

The Monthly Gems by Allan Tong Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD-Q TOP PICK May 11, 2020

In the race to find a treatment, Gilead currently leads with its remdesivir. It's the name on every investor's lips and trading screens. Tests so far indicate that remdesivir shortens the recovery time of some Covid-19 patients, specifically those who take remdesivir recover after 11 days, which is four days faster than those who did not take it. Last week, the American FDA allowed doctors to use this drug on an emergency basis on patients hospitalized with Covid-19. However, the FDA has not formally approved remdesivir, because it requires more testing. Currently, there are several ongoing clinical trials to test whether the drug can stop Covid-19 from replicating. In other words, remdesivir helps some patients heal faster, but isn't the magic bullet, at least not yet. In this horse race, Gilead is out front, but will it cross the finish line faster. Gilead pays a 3.4% based on a payout ratio of 65.9%, and trades at a PE just under 20x, with a forward PE of 13x.
$80.800

Stock price when the opinion was issued

biotechnology pharmaceutical
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WATCH

In past years, biotech was the safe trade, but this year risk is back, so these stocks have fallen out of favour. Also, there are so many drugs in trials now and big pharma needs new product. She's looking at Gilead and Moderna, because they have low PEs and alot of drugs in development. However, the overall sector is risky. 

BUY

Has long owned this, because it's a value stock and keeps raising its dividend.

HOLD

Chart pattern indicating weakness in the company.
Risk lower than the past year.
$60 share price a good time to buy. 

BUY

Healthcare is down 2% year. He likes the devices in HC, with Stryker his top pick. Surgeries are coming back, and the company has a new suite of products coming.

BUY
Was upgraded today

It's a biopharma which as a group did very well last year. Compare that to the smaller biotechs which have not done well the past 3 years. This year, biopharma and staples have underperformed. This boasts a high free cash flow yield and has a great product cycle coming. 

DON'T BUY

High flyer because of Hep C, so successful it isn't needed on an ongoing basis. Its HIV drug was equally successful. Ironically, success impacted growth of those drugs negatively. Decent dividend. 

PARTIAL SELL

The business isn't worth as much as the stock is selling, even though shares have recently bounced back.

WATCH

Hitting 52-week highs. Caught his attention because last week they beat top and bottom lines. After consolidating 9 years, it's starting to break out. Doesn't know this well enough to see if this breakout will hold, but worth watching.

BUY

He waited a long time to see performance, but patience paid off. Earnings are accelerating, fueled by their HIV platform.

DON'T BUY

He had owned it for 10 years at a time when it had a blockbuster drug that cured hepatitis. Gilead took profits and invested them into HIV drugs. As with other drug companies holding patents on blockbuster drugs with expiry dates, don't buy this one.