Veronika Hirsch Gibson Energy GEI-T COMMENT Jul 20, 2016

Would lean away from company. Large portion of EBITDA comes from marketing - not take or pay contracts (guaranteed income). Better options for midstream investors like Pembina. 

We're all trying to figure out which stocks tariffs will either impact or leave unscathed. There's a thirst for natural gas, and we need to get it offshore as part of the bridge to totally clean energy. A good choice for new $$ now.

(Note the short timeframe.) Great chart, continues to work. Still likes it.

Is one of his largest holdings. It's had a rough week. Their infrastructure business stores oil in Alberta and Texas, and they have a marketing business. The latter has been weak and volatile. The dividend is sustainable; cash flow covers it. Is not worried about tariffs.

An opportunity, as it just sold off on marketing segment.

Growth estimates of pipelines have really gone up in past few months with nat gas prices going higher. More throughput looking likely on Trans Mountain. More incentive in Canada to talk about moving oil East-West and North-South.

Some upside potential as measured by FMV, perhaps 28%. Has set back to technical support. Overall chart for 10 years shows a company whose balance sheet is slowly, slowly eroding. Balance sheet quality is OK, but doesn't make his socks roll up and down. Nice dividend, but not covered for the next 12 months.

Likes the stock and the whole energy infrastructure space. It's a place you can hang out along with gold and yield plays. Doesn't get a lot of respect from the market. Q4 saw a market loss, but that's only 11% of NAV. 

Raised dividend by 5%. Baytex deal is accretive by ~1% to stable, long-term cashflows. Likes the infrastructure growth shown in Q4. Strong balance sheet, decent payout ratio, very high dividend. Cheap at 11.7x PE for 2027, and modelling ~14% EPS growth.

Name to look at in the same space as FTS, but at a much better valuation.

It is shown as a sell. Its overall free cash flow of 2.5% is modest but standard. Look elsewhere for total investment opportunities in this sector, eg. Imperial Oil.

(All the past picks today were from October, when he thought we were late cycle. His view is that we've started a new cycle, so tech and consumer discretionary risk-on names should do better.) Thought we were heading into a market peak, which is when a lot of inflation plays do well. The 4-year cycle reset typically lasts ~34 weeks (8 months), and that's what we saw in 2022 from January to October. This year, we went through that in roughly 8 weeks. 

Pushing to new highs. Fundamental analyst on the team likes this name a lot. Hold, but don't buy more here.