Peter HodsonGEAC ComputerGAC.TOTOP PICKJun 13, 2005
Had a pretty good year, but a lot of people still don't like it. 8 X earnings. $2 a share in cash. Revenue decline has stopped. Cash flow is pouring in. Starting to cross sell their customers different products. Turning around and the underlying earnings power is much higher than what the street thinks.
Very interesting at these levels. Trading around 11 X earnings. Management has done a very good job. The markets they are involved in are growing. A free cash flow yield of about 10%.
Ranks 423 out of 700 in his quant model. Earnings estimates have been chopped 7% in the last 90 days and 12% in the last 60 days. Earnings growth year over year is down by 21%. Earnings are expected to drop from $0.87 in Apr/05 to $0.79 in '06. Looking out to '07, the forcast is for $0.81.
$0.75/0.80 is your base rate of earnings. If the street pays 15 X, that gets you to $12. They have about $2.25 in cash. In the event of a takeover, it's probably around $14/15.
Has had a good run and may be time to lock in your profits. Would have concerns on its growth trajectory. 50% of the business is services driven by software sales. If the software sales are not there, then the service revenue will eventually be hurt.