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John McColl GEAC Computer GAC-T DON'T BUY Mar 07, 2002

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John McColl

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$5.110

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

His model price is $16.70 which is a 54% differential. It will probably go to about $10.40 on this last pull back which will be a good price.

DON'T BUY

Not a significant grower. Underperforming. Very hard to find a Canadian technology stock that actually looks very good.

TOP PICK

$0.75/0.80 is your base rate of earnings. If the street pays 15 X, that gets you to $12. They have about $2.25 in cash. In the event of a takeover, it's probably around $14/15.

TOP PICK

Its peak of $12.40 was in anticipation of a takeover offer. The company is in play.

DON'T BUY

Ranks 423 out of 700 in his quant model. Earnings estimates have been chopped 7% in the last 90 days and 12% in the last 60 days. Earnings growth year over year is down by 21%. Earnings are expected to drop from $0.87 in Apr/05 to $0.79 in '06. Looking out to '07, the forcast is for $0.81.

BUY

Very interesting at these levels. Trading around 11 X earnings. Management has done a very good job. The markets they are involved in are growing. A free cash flow yield of about 10%.

SELL

Sold as he didn't think they were going to get a better offer.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 4/05. Up 16%.) Sold his holdings at $12.48 as it is being taken over.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 18/05. Up 19.5%.) Sold it at $12.48.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 18/05.) Sold at $12.48. Was acquired by another company.

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John McColl GEAC Computer GAC-T DON'T BUY Mar 07, 2002

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