Opinions
Richard Croft
Augusta Gold
G-T
TOP PICK
May 10, 2016
$24.100
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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COMMENT
If Barrick buys Newmont and Goldcorp walks away with $630 million because the Newmont-Goldcorp deal (of last month) doesn't actually go through. Can GT shareholders kick the GT board out--the board who gets a hefty package, but not the shareholders? He can't comment on this though many are asking this question. About this deal, we haven't seen gold M&A deals for a while. From Barrick's point of view, this is an obvious plus. Many are surprised that this is the deal.
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BUY
Big relationship to US dollar, so dollar strength means gold weakness. Gold gets seasonally weak right now. May go sideways for a while. If it breaks the downtrend, it can accelerate pretty quickly. Second seasonality is in the summer, but could happen earlier. Timely to buy right now, and wait for the next shot up.
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DON'T BUY
He's never really owned Goldcorp, Newmont and Barrick. The share appreciation would come better from an Agnico Eagle or Kirkland Lake which have growing reserves, great management and low production costs. He stays away from companies like Goldcorp or Barrick or Newmont. In fact, Aginco has outperformed Goldcorp and will be self-sufficient by 2023. It pays a good dividend and they continue to grow overall.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 20/18, Up 2%) This merged with another company and was taken out. He still likes the gold space. Central Banks are beginning to run on fumes and have no idea what problems they are causing for investors down the road. Gold is good in deflationary times and even better in inflationary times -- it doesn't do well in between.
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Sell: Goldcorp Oct 24 calls at $2.80.
Sell: Goldcorp Oct 24 puts at $2.80.
This had an interesting price today closing at $24. Basically in October you are going to Sell the stock or Buy more. If you buy more, your average cost is going to be around $21. If you believe the thesis that the gold market is experiencing a sector rotation into that space, then very likely it will regress to the mean. If the stock stays the same or goes up, you are going to make $5.60, which is a very good return for 5 months.