First Quantum Minerals (FM.TO)

They've put their troubles behind them. Can't predict their near future, but in a year or two there could be a tailwind for commodity prices. They are getting earnings from some of their earnings now which is reducing their debt.

SHORT (A Top Pick Jun 28/17, Down 42%) It's been a wild ride. It has come off more recently. The thesis has not changed on this stock. It has terrible valuation with virtually no return on equity. It missed on the most recent quarter. It is not cheap and a highly volatile stock.

An exceptionally volatile stock. It produces copper in dangerous parts of the world. Lots of companies are having problems these days with governments, not getting good enough deals. You have to be really careful. This is going to track the Chinese stock market pretty carefully. The company is well-run. Has a lot of debt. If you are going to invest in stocks like this, make sure it is the appropriate amount in your portfolio and don’t own too much.

First Quantum (FM-T) or Hudbay (HBM-T)? He tries to only focus in areas of the market that are strong technically and fundamentally. Also, he always looks for new groups of leadership to emerge. In the last few weeks, despite the fact that commodities in general have been spotty, the metals group has started to perform better. Globally, things are getting better economically, but in addition, the US$ has really taken a tumble. When that happens, it tends to be good for emerging markets and good for commodity prices. The 3 metal stocks that stand out would be Hudbay, First Quantum, and Lundin (LUN-T). All 3 look very attractive. He would be OK with all 3.

A good Short? The short answer is yes, and the long answer is yes, but he would advise against doing it. To do it, he would put a Long against it such as Lundin Mining (LUN-T) or Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T). They have an awful lot of debt and are very concentrated in Zambia. There are execution risks on a very large mine they are building in Panama. With a lot of debt attached, this is a very tough place to be.

*SHORT* This is in line with his concern that the cyclical value may have peaked and may not be recovering in this cycle. Despite having a really good run from July to the election, this has really trended down. Their problem is that they have always had a lot of debt. Expensive on an earnings basis, trading at 43X trailing. A really low ROE. Highly volatile. (Analysts’ price target is $17.63.)

Copper had moved up earlier in the year and kind of went sideways for a while. This is the levered one. It is the jurisdiction that is the problem for anyone that is nervous. However, what you get is the best liquidity and the best leverage. If you really like copper, and can stomach the risks, then this one should move. He prefers Hudbay (HBM-T).

Thinks copper will do very well 3 or 4 years out, but it depends on your patience and willingness to endure some short-term pain with regards to their balance sheet, which is still stretched.

Their Cobre copper project in the Panama will make this company one of the largest copper miners in the world. They have to get through the construction. They have debt on the balance sheet, which makes things a little precarious. He would probably stay on the sidelines.

He is not short this one anymore. He thinks it is fully priced, however. They have quite a bit of debt and are building an asset in Panama. There is political risk in Zambia.

Base metals, primarily in countries that he wouldn’t necessarily take vacations in. Higher risk environments, but from that you get higher returns. He prefers more stable jurisdictions. The company has decent assets that are generating cash flow. Also, they got $1 billion in cash on a recent deal which gives them some flexibility.