Robert Lauzon
First Uranium Corporation
FIU-T
DON'T BUY
Oct 05, 2009
Management forecast low-cost uranium production of 225,000 pounds per quarter by the 3rd quarter. Also forecast a doubling of gold production with a production cost of approximately $330 per ounce. His confidence level in management has deteriorated. A wait-and-see stock. (See Top Picks.)
Has been in a downward trend since May, which may be because of their South African location. 50 day has turned below the 200 day moving average but the MACD is showing a higher low, which is indicating that the down is over. The sector starts moving up you will probably get a rally in this giving you a chance to get out.
On the cusp of a significant ramp up of gold and uranium production but other issues are getting in the way right now. Have a big ownership stake in Somers and Jack (?), which has issues with the present CEO running both companies. Also issues with black empowerment.
Anywhere from $3 to $3.50 is quite cheap. Trading at about 5X PE. Missed their production guidance and lowered their Q3. Also the strengthening Rand has been an issue.
Gold/uranium in South Africa. Analysts chopped estimates by 95% in the last 90 days. Expected to lose $.12 in 2009 and $.30 in 2010. Earnings in 2011 are supposed to go positive at $.66. Wait to see if they get the mine actually producing.
Have a deal with Gold Wheaton (GLW-T) where they have an up-front payment to sell their gold production from their uranium mining. A possible penalty of about $42 million US if they are not in production by June from one of their mines. There are conflicting stories. Still a shortfall problem in the 2nd quarter and a bigger one by the 4th.
Came out with a fair amount of fan fair. The price of Uranium is doing nothing. It’s a long-term hold. You are not going to get a huge amount of action in the short term. We have decommissioning of more nuclear weapons that that adds another uncertainty. Mexico [gulf oil problem] has not lifted Uranium.
Struggled with management and production issues and has been a poor executed story. He owns the convertible debentures, which pays a yield while you wait and possibly get some of the money back when uranium rebounds.
40 week moving average just slightly broke through stock price today. This may indicate a beginning of a move so you might want to stay with it with a stop-loss right below. Looks like the beginning of a base building.
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