Stockchase Opinions

Robert Lauzon First Uranium Corporation FIU-T DON'T BUY Oct 05, 2009

Management forecast low-cost uranium production of 225,000 pounds per quarter by the 3rd quarter. Also forecast a doubling of gold production with a production cost of approximately $330 per ounce. His confidence level in management has deteriorated. A wait-and-see stock. (See Top Picks.)
$2.940

Stock price when the opinion was issued

non-base metal mining
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WATCH
Has been in a downward trend since May, which may be because of their South African location. 50 day has turned below the 200 day moving average but the MACD is showing a higher low, which is indicating that the down is over. The sector starts moving up you will probably get a rally in this giving you a chance to get out.
DON'T BUY
On the cusp of a significant ramp up of gold and uranium production but other issues are getting in the way right now. Have a big ownership stake in Somers and Jack (?), which has issues with the present CEO running both companies. Also issues with black empowerment.
HOLD
Anywhere from $3 to $3.50 is quite cheap. Trading at about 5X PE. Missed their production guidance and lowered their Q3. Also the strengthening Rand has been an issue.
PARTIAL BUY
Starting to take some positions in uranium as the prices have levelled off and are starting to pick up. This one looks pretty good.
WAIT
Gold/uranium in South Africa. Analysts chopped estimates by 95% in the last 90 days. Expected to lose $.12 in 2009 and $.30 in 2010. Earnings in 2011 are supposed to go positive at $.66. Wait to see if they get the mine actually producing.
SELL
Have a deal with Gold Wheaton (GLW-T) where they have an up-front payment to sell their gold production from their uranium mining. A possible penalty of about $42 million US if they are not in production by June from one of their mines. There are conflicting stories. Still a shortfall problem in the 2nd quarter and a bigger one by the 4th.
DON'T BUY
Came out with a fair amount of fan fair. The price of Uranium is doing nothing. It’s a long-term hold. You are not going to get a huge amount of action in the short term. We have decommissioning of more nuclear weapons that that adds another uncertainty. Mexico [gulf oil problem] has not lifted Uranium.
DON'T BUY
Struggled with management and production issues and has been a poor executed story. He owns the convertible debentures, which pays a yield while you wait and possibly get some of the money back when uranium rebounds.
HOLD
40 week moving average just slightly broke through stock price today. This may indicate a beginning of a move so you might want to stay with it with a stop-loss right below. Looks like the beginning of a base building.