Stockchase Opinions

Grant White Fairfax Financial FFH-T TOP PICK Aug 09, 2024

Bellwether stock. Good time to buy as a core holding when it pulls back. Decades of execution, and that will continue. Yield is 1.4%.

(Analysts’ price target is $1823.81)
$1486.300

Stock price when the opinion was issued

insurance
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HOLD

All the insurance names, both in Canada and the US, continue to work. If interest rates do, in fact, go higher, that will only be beneficial for lifecos and other insurers. The chart looks fantastic. Good run, so there is some weakening in the intermediate term.

If a long-term holding, best thing you can do is sit on your hands and do nothing except participate in the DRIP program. Especially if he's right on the broader call of rates being 8-10% in the secular bear market of 2030-40, should be a big tailwind for insurers.

BUY

Owns shares in company. Founder led with very strong management team. Recent share price weakness created a buying opportunity. Discounted relative to peers. Good alternative to Canadian bank stocks. Would recommend holding for the long term. 

BUY
FFH vs. BRK.B

FFH is in his Canadian dividend strategy. BRK.B is in his global strategy.

Both are insurance-driven companies that are partly holding companies. Diversified businesses. Breakup NAV (not that they'd ever be broken up) is significantly higher than current share price. And that makes both of these a buy. Both are in the lower-risk category of companies.

BUY

Trading as though there's nothing going on in the market.

BUY

Doing everything right. Combined ratios are improving. P&C insurer, big exposure to reinsurance, global & NA. Serial acquirer. Great management team. Advantaged by rising property values. Extreme weather means the risk goes up, and so do the premiums. Earns a lot of investment income on its growing float. Undemanding multiple.

COMMENT
What explains its tremendous performance?

Good operational management long term. Stock's more than doubled in the last year and a half, and he'd have to dig to find out why. Value, instead of growth, has been in favour for the last 6 months or so. Its counterpart, BRK.B, has also done well (but not doubled).

If he finds an answer, he'll be sure to post it on social media.

BUY

Has done well, and will probably continue to do so. Well positioned in its space. Also does well in an environment of higher long-term yields, whereas many companies (especially those with elevated debt) flounder. A name like this will insulate you from that.

BUY

Great job growing book value, and with organic growth and underwriting. EPS profile has really improved. The share price looks "expensive", but it trades at only 7.7x PE for 2026, and growing at 18%. More upside.

Darling in the 1990s, then struggled forever. Great comeback.

BUY

Everyone was shorting it in the 2000s, and now it's one of the most favoured stocks on the TSX. Up 13% YTD. He owns it in TFSAs. Helped by global acquisitions. Combined ratio ~94%. Underwriting has improved, costs kept in line. Almost every operation is has is showing profitability.

Estimated PE for this year is about 10x, normal for insurance industry. Has hit a high, but it's one you want to own for the long term. He continues to buy for clients.

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Curated by Allan Tong since 2019.
99+ opinions with 4.15 rating.

TOP PICK

FFH will keep chugging along under fine management, improving combined ratios and pure momentum. Bay Street is flashing buy signals and an 11% price target to $2,600. The main drawback with Fairfax is its share price, currently above $2,300. Don't expect a stock split anytime soon. However, if your pockets are deep and your horizon is long, then FFH is right for you.