Stockchase Opinions

Dennis Mitchell, CFA Firm Capital Mortgage Investment FC-T HOLD Jul 20, 2009

As close to a mortgage REIT as you get in Canada. Essentially underwrite a portfolio of construction financing, mezzanine loans and commercial real estate. Average loan term is probably about 1 year. Payout ratio is sustainable. Limited competition. 9% yield but very little growth.
$9.950

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Financial Services
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BUY
Very good management. Focused on smaller community centre shopping areas and tend to take long-term views on their assets. (He owns the bonds, not the stocks.)
COMMENT
Is dividend safe? Has no worries about this company. Consistent track record. Predominately in Toronto and there is very good loan to value.
COMMENT

This company doesn’t retain any of its profits. Pays out 100% of its profits in the form of dividends so the BV per share never grows. This is like a high-yield bond.

BUY

This would be among the best.Concientious management. Has had a little bit of a correction but feels that correction is based on interest rates, not anything that has gone on with the company.

BUY

High payout ratio, but more like a high yield bond. They pay out most of their profits. There is no capital appreciation but you get 9 or 10% payout during the year. The stock is not designed to go up. It goes up and down with the appetite for yield.

DON'T BUY

Lending for real estate projects. As interest rates rise, there might be a slowdown in projects so could slow down business for this one. Maybe this real estate cycle is long in the tooth on the building side. He owns more REITs instead of the financing side.

DON'T BUY

A mortgage corp. They invest in mortgages, both commercial and residential. It is a very well run company that has a nice dividend. There is a potential for them to be impacted by the new mortgage rules if the housing market slows down.

COMMENT

He prefers the private space, because they are just getting the trend on how much you are receiving from the mortgages. You are getting a lot more ability, and pricewise it is about the same. Firm Capital is a well-run company.

RISKY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

FC is a relatively small mortgage lender. The stock is cheap at 10X earnings, and it mostly trades for its 9.4% yield. The dividend has not been raised for at least 10 years, but it does pay fairly regular small special dividends annually. There has been esssentially no growth in per share earnings in 15 years, and its business is very closely tied to housing, rates, and the economy. With this, and with its small size, it should be consider higher-risk income, certainly. We do not really see any red flags other than these risks, but we would prefer to see growth. Competitive pressures have increased, and a recession or 'higher for longer' rates would not help the stock much. The stock has declined about 30% over the past decade. This has been offset by the dividend, but the stock could still drift lower, lowering net gains on the dividend. 
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