Stockchase InsightsFirm Capital Mortgage InvestmentFC.TORISKYSep 20, 2023
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
FC is a relatively small mortgage lender. The stock is cheap at 10X earnings, and it mostly trades for its 9.4% yield. The dividend has not been raised for at least 10 years, but it does pay fairly regular small special dividends annually. There has been esssentially no growth in per share earnings in 15 years, and its business is very closely tied to housing, rates, and the economy. With this, and with its small size, it should be consider higher-risk income, certainly. We do not really see any red flags other than these risks, but we would prefer to see growth. Competitive pressures have increased, and a recession or 'higher for longer' rates would not help the stock much. The stock has declined about 30% over the past decade. This has been offset by the dividend, but the stock could still drift lower, lowering net gains on the dividend. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
An alt-mortage lender, typically at 10% and mostly are construction loans on land bought by developers--much riskier. They maintain an 8% yield, so are a pure yield play. Whenever they need to grow, they issue more stock, so you don't get capital gains.
He prefers the private space, because they are just getting the trend on how much you are receiving from the mortgages. You are getting a lot more ability, and pricewise it is about the same. Firm Capital is a well-run company.
A mortgage corp. They invest in mortgages, both commercial and residential. It is a very well run company that has a nice dividend. There is a potential for them to be impacted by the new mortgage rules if the housing market slows down.
Lending for real estate projects. As interest rates rise, there might be a slowdown in projects so could slow down business for this one. Maybe this real estate cycle is long in the tooth on the building side. He owns more REITs instead of the financing side.
High payout ratio, but more like a high yield bond. They pay out most of their profits. There is no capital appreciation but you get 9 or 10% payout during the year. The stock is not designed to go up. It goes up and down with the appetite for yield.
This would be among the best.Concientious management. Has had a little bit of a correction but feels that correction is based on interest rates, not anything that has gone on with the company.
This company doesn’t retain any of its profits. Pays out 100% of its profits in the form of dividends so the BV per share never grows. This is like a high-yield bond.
Very good management. Focused on smaller community centre shopping areas and tend to take long-term views on their assets. (He owns the bonds, not the stocks.)
As close to a mortgage REIT as you get in Canada. Essentially underwrite a portfolio of construction financing, mezzanine loans and commercial real estate. Average loan term is probably about 1 year. Payout ratio is sustainable. Limited competition. 9% yield but very little growth.
A short-term financer of commercial and multi-residential construction. No exposure to the sub prime market. A good name. Stable yield and modest appreciation.
Small “mortgage” REIT. Mezzanine financing for residential for multi-residential and commercial development. Involves loans for 12 to 16 months for some to develop a property or to reposition one. Expensive debt, so it is short term. Compelling value and a great yield. Fairly illiquid.
FC is a relatively small mortgage lender. The stock is cheap at 10X earnings, and it mostly trades for its 9.4% yield. The dividend has not been raised for at least 10 years, but it does pay fairly regular small special dividends annually. There has been esssentially no growth in per share earnings in 15 years, and its business is very closely tied to housing, rates, and the economy. With this, and with its small size, it should be consider higher-risk income, certainly. We do not really see any red flags other than these risks, but we would prefer to see growth. Competitive pressures have increased, and a recession or 'higher for longer' rates would not help the stock much. The stock has declined about 30% over the past decade. This has been offset by the dividend, but the stock could still drift lower, lowering net gains on the dividend.
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