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Firm Capital Mortgage Investment
FC-T
RISKY
Sep 20, 2023
$10.140
Stock price when the opinion was issued
Financial Services
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HOLD
As close to a mortgage REIT as you get in Canada. Essentially underwrite a portfolio of construction financing, mezzanine loans and commercial real estate. Average loan term is probably about 1 year. Payout ratio is sustainable. Limited competition. 9% yield but very little growth.
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FC is a relatively small mortgage lender. The stock is cheap at 10X earnings, and it mostly trades for its 9.4% yield. The dividend has not been raised for at least 10 years, but it does pay fairly regular small special dividends annually. There has been esssentially no growth in per share earnings in 15 years, and its business is very closely tied to housing, rates, and the economy. With this, and with its small size, it should be consider higher-risk income, certainly. We do not really see any red flags other than these risks, but we would prefer to see growth. Competitive pressures have increased, and a recession or 'higher for longer' rates would not help the stock much. The stock has declined about 30% over the past decade. This has been offset by the dividend, but the stock could still drift lower, lowering net gains on the dividend.
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