Stock price when the opinion was issued
We now have a gateway to Asia. With tariffs, Canadian energy will not be welcome in the US. Integrated nature of its pipelines make it a long-term asset with growth capabilities that will reward shareholders well. Buy when it goes on sale, trim any gains. Good place to be, core holding for him.
Where will supply shift? This year, the Canadian E&Ps are outproducing all other international E&Ps, including Europe, US or Australia. He also bought ENB, which delivers the crude oil to the US. The US refiners have an insatiable need for Canadian oil. There's a 10% tariff on Canadian oil. Well, guess what--the Canadian oil companies are not eating the tariff, but rather the US refiners. If there's a shift in supply (given Mideast tensions), Canada will be able to supply that oil. US energy companies have a -12% earnings estimate this year vs. Canadian energy of only -0.20%
If the leading sectors in the market are those that would benefit from a more inflationary environment (financials, materials, industrials, some energy), and they are, you want to look at the groups that are not. Things that act like bonds (utilities, staples, REITs, pipelines) are underperforming.
It could be that people piled into defensives in April, but they just haven't performed. So with other groups that are economically sensitive performing, the defensive groups are being used as a source of cash. Great dividend, and that will grow mid-single digits. He'd rather be leaning towards hedging against inflation than disinflation (which is where a pipeline would come in).
Due to the stability of the demands for their services and the strong barrier to entry in the utility industry, ENB revenue is really resilient across market cycles.
These advantages allow most utility companies to leverage their balance sheet. These are quite common practices in the industry. Interest rates moving up are a risk.
However, as of Q3-2022, the debt structure includes 90% fixed rates; the company is managing this risk quite well.
As ENB matures, growth in dividends also normalizes along with inflation rates, as their pricing adjustment is regulated by authorities.
Its reduced dividend growth guidance is likely part conservatism and part current conditions.
Although, we don’t expect ENB to grow and compound capital at a very high rate, going forward ENB is still attractive as a “bond proxy” for income investors.
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