Stockchase Opinions

Chris BlumasDescartesDSG.TOTOP PICKJun 19, 2025

Down 17% YTD.

Software company, specialty is supply chain management and logistics. Unique, well run, exceptionally strong balance sheet. Currently trades at a rich valuation, but typically trades even higher. Hit by trade uncertainty from Trump tariffs. Still below his buy price today. Will do well long term. No dividend. 

(Analysts’ price target is $164.03)
$136.94

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 19/25, Down 32%)

He apologizes for this return. He has added to it. The overhang is the fear of AI taking over software. DSG's revenues and profits are doing well, though, and they have a durable moat. They also incorporate AI. They have actually gained market share and gained revenues. He still recommends it.

TOP PICK

All of the Top Picks today are being tarred with the same software brush, with very little differentiation of what they do and how they do it. This name is lumped in as though it's an enterprise software company. Misunderstood.

It's a logistics network that's been built up over the last 20 years. Very difficult to replicate this network -- like any network, you nee the participants and you need the data. Uneconomic to even try to replicate. Deep moat. Incorporating AI to automate things. With supply chains and logistics, trade barriers have made things even more complicated -- so demand for its products has grown significantly. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $151.85)
STRONG BUY

Tremendous buying opportunity for the long term. Phenomenal company. One of the world's biggest and most effective logistics companies. Stock price has been under pressure, and it goes back to that AI disruption theme that we've talked about throughout the show. Probably the last company he can think of that would be at risk from those disruptions -- it's highly integrated and mission-critical.

Pretty healthy FCF yield. An increase in trade volumes would help organic growth. Could actually benefit from AI innovations.

WATCH

Great company. Logistics in transportation is very apropos to the world we're in, and AI will be playing a bigger part. Technically weak. He'd need to see it develop. Positive that it's traded back to its long-term 200-week MA and held. RSI versus the market has been waning.

The transportation IYT ETF just broke out to new highs. And some of the big US logistics companies have started to wake up.

TOP PICK

Essential software and services for cross-border trade, and that's a high recurring element of its business. Former CEO used to say "At the start of every quarter, I know where 90% of my revenues for the quarter are coming from. I spend the next 90 days getting the other 10%." 

Stock's been hit this year partly because of the tariff war (which, ironically, increases demand for its business), and partly because all software's taken a hit (might partly be because of AI). Down 27%, at 2-year lows. Valuation's well below 5-year average. Trades at 22x EV/EBITDA. Expensive, but great long-term growth story with 7-9% organic growth. 

Attractive way to get exposure to the tech sector. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $161.23)
DON'T BUY

Candidate for tax-loss selling. Broke neckline. Next level of support looks to be ~$100-110 (the TV charts aren't exact). Looking at a 5-year chart, the older a support level is the less important it is. Not a buy now, as it's in a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They lead in their industry. A great company. No, not a falling knife. He's still doing homework on it, but he's watching it closely. It's down probably due to Trump tariffs. He suspect this is a good buying opportunity now.

SELL
Software for supply management.

Did well for a long time. He trimmed when it got above $160, more recently sold around $140. AI can do a lot of what they do, and that's a threat. All software companies are feeling the same pain. There's also a competing product out there that's free.

DON'T BUY

Is a nichy Constellation Software, concentrating on software for supply chains. The stock has seen strong growth, but at a high multiple. Tariffs are hurting short term, but should be good long term. Too nichy for him.

COMMENT

Doesn't follow it closely. Its performance is a little underwhelming and there is maybe 8 to 9% upside from here. Consider CRM and IBM instead.

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

Its customers are facing difficulty with making decisions given the uncertain trade environment. We think that it will see increased uncertainties in sales and earnings guidance, but largely, it has navigated challenges well in the past (2020) and we would be comfortable holding or buying here. 
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BUY

Excellent business that has owned for over a decade. Ability to allocate capital very good. Excellent management team that has been able to allocate capital well. Ability to generate cash flow very good. Share price appreciation spectacular.  Will continue to own for the long term. 

TOP PICK

Will benefit from tariffs; they do logistics for companies. They make the paperwork easy. A great Canadian growth story. Has owned this a long time.

(Analysts’ price target is $176.15)
DON'T BUY

Only good things to say about the business and management (though he has a hometown Kitchener-Waterloo bias ;) Through the global lens, other companies are just as good, cheaper, with probably more growth potential.