Stock price when the opinion was issued
Lumpy road to recovery, but Iger's making progress. Streaming is becoming profitable. Content offerings are turning around, with a huge library. Parks have slowed, investment has increased; yet still a destination vacation for many across the world. Good growth in cruise ships. Undemanding multiple under 20x PE. She's being patient; upside from here.
A lot going on here in recent years, but just a few years ago, the stock was nearly doubled, based on hopes for Disney+. That said, they will be a long-term winner in streaming; their content is strong around the world. Also, their theme parks keep selling, and are expanding internationally. Probably we've seen peak Marvel, but Disney holds a deep catalogue of content, including Star Wars. If they can sort out management and make streaming profitable, they should return to 20% margins.
Spike in stock is due to fears of an economic slowdown being put at bay. Theme parks are expanding, but will depend on macro environment. ESPN is more challenged. Disney+ is challenged because NFLX is beating everybody. Paying 20x PE for 12-13% growth. Doesn't dislike the name, but some segments are having a tough go.
In 5 years They're taking on Netflix with some fine programming, but he wonders how much room there will be in the streaming market as more players enter? More competition may pressure Netflix stock down the road. Disney has had a long-term peak of 4x adjusted book value historically. It's now above that ($131). As long as the stock stays above that, then the market will believe in Disney. But watch this very carefully. Right now is a real line in the sand.