Stockchase Opinions

Geoff Scott CSX Corp CSX-Q TOP PICK Mar 20, 2018

They are continuing the plan that Hunter Harrison put in place to improve efficiency, drive down the operating ratio, and sell assets. Velocity is up 20% this year: trains are moving faster, which provides better service and increases capacity. CSX is improving its capital profile, with higher cash flow margins. He expects every dollar of revenue to convert to about 30 cents in the future from a historical level of 8 cents. There have been complaints from the customer (shipper) base as a result of all the cost cutting but if CSX keeps improving its operating metrics, the customers’ concerns will be resolved. (Analysts’ price target is 62.92$)

$56.970

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Transportation
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BUY
CSX just announced a huge share buyback program and a nice earnings beat. Impressive given that this is a smaller railroad.
BUY
Reports next week. The industrial cargo business is growing stronger. If this sells off in response to Union Pacific, then buy.
BUY

Really likes the rails, a cyclical group. CN, CP, CSX trade as a team. Transport is doing quite well, and the rails have a lot of leverage in their business models. Done a great job managing operating expenses.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 22/21, Up 16.5%) Railroads are benefiting from the infrastructure and supply chain, because rails are the leading way to transport good. This is a positive. He sees 8% earnings growth. Still a buy.
BUY
He started buying it today at $36 and it's pushing $37. Upside call is $37.50.
BUY
This is an east coast railroad, and east coast ports will get more business (west coast ports are dysfunctional). They are minting money with coal shipping; Europe has de-nuclearized, so it needs other sources of energy. A long-term investment. Is down 16% this year, but has a lot of upside.
BUY

Run by a great CEO. The company is becoming more customer-oriented. He targets $40.

BUY

Last week, they reported a good quarter with stable volumes, up 1% YOY, led by automotives, chemicals (up 5%) and fertilizer (4%). Revenues beat, but earnings were down 8% over the year. Also, they raised guidance.

TOP PICK

Will benefit 6-8% from US tax cuts to come and a strong US economy. CSX reduced their share count by 34% in the last 10 years, while dividends have risen.

(Analysts’ price target is $38.59)