James HodginsCorby Spirit and Wine (A)CSW.A.TOTOP PICKNov 27, 2018

Small cap, thinly traded. Dividend is fairly good. Management's focus on profitability and increasing market share has caused stock to move up. Buyers' strike on US alcohol is helping.

Ace Beverage acquisition got him interested. Some really nice growth coming, but not all segments are growing. So it's not going to give him the consistent 10-15% growth rate of a great company. Last quarter showed 9%.

Affinity for a product is different from investing in a stock. Don't touch until gets above $13.50. Stock seems to be pausing and could continue dropping, which would be confirmed by a drop below $12, and then you should get out. Thinly traded is a problem, as you don't want to buy a stock you can't get out of easily.

A cash machine. Owned by Pernod-Ricard and pays a decent dividend. Occasionally, it pays a special dividend. Hard to know what the future is. A safe, defensive stock. Will Pernod buy it out and go private. It's fairly valued now if you own, you could sell, but overall the stock is okay.

He generally likes the spirits and liquor business. Corby is one of the leading players in Canada but there are international companies in this space. Pernod Ricard owns a controlling interest in this company and appears unwilling to pay out the cash balance in the company as a dividend or take it private or do anything else to unlock value. This is why he exited his position. He likes the company, it pays a good dividend, it runs a stable long-term business, but it doesn’t look to be generating a high enough total return at this time. On the other hand, in a market like the present one, owning a stable cash-producing business like a liquor business is not a bad idea.

This company is a real cash machine but low growth. This is mainly a marketing company for spirits. They are bringing on their own wine now. The company is controlled by Pernod Ricard in Europe. There has been ongoing speculation that the company would take itself private but that hasn’t happened and is not likely to. Every few years they pay a huge dividend because Pernod Ricard has a lot of debt. He much prefers the growth prospects of other companies that sell and market their own products. They’ve tried some initiatives to grow, such as selling product in the US (which was a failure). The dividend is very safe but it is unlikely to appreciate dramatically.

Only one analyst covers it. Earnings estimates are lower for next year and the year after than this year. Year over year sales (reported Feb 7) were up a glacial 1% and year over year earnings were down over 20%. Return on equity is forecast at a reasonable 13% but there is no growth. At a dividend of 4.1%, there are better opportunities.