Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTSTRONG BUYAug 02, 2019Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 11, 2026. Market Open.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
What metric did you use to buy this? He bought this in Q4 2008. It wasn't a bargain, but actually went up that year. He bought it because he expected them, as they grew revenues, to eventually get gross margin from merchandise and not only memberships. This took three years to happen and have been making money this way since. They keep growing customers, because they have the lowest mark-ups on Earth. The risk is that Millennials prefer a competitive price vs. the lowest (Amazon) price. Will this switch when they age? COST also owns real estate in wealthy areas, and they run a pristine balance sheet. Workers own a lot of the company stock too. Incredibly managed.