Matthew McCall Costco Wholesale Corporation COST-Q BUY Jun 05, 2017

Managed to combine recurring revenue (membership fees) with traditional retail. Business model is still the best in the retail space. Big push toward lower-cost merchandisers. Second to none in its ability to not only survive, but thrive, in what could be a difficult economic environment. Yield is 0.48%.

Any time it opens up a store, it's successful. Model is easy to replicate in other countries. Exceptional customer loyalty. Produce will probably be impacted less by tariffs, as it's sourced locally; hardware goods may be impacted.

Recently sold. PEG ratio just got too high.

They will survive this tariff war, because they can source cheap, bulk products.

Great company and franchise, but valuation got expensive.

It reports tomorrow. No matter how good the quarter will be, it will sell off as it always does after a quarter. Buy after the report.

Wonderful business, though not a good valuation (and that's the orange flag). PE ratio is in the 40s if not the 50s, lots of growth already priced in. Even 30x PE is probably a bit rich. Fantastic job increasing cashflow per share. If you own it, hold on (again, from Charlie Munger, "do not interrupt compounding unnecessarily").

Growth is driven by steady cadence of new-store expansion. Good traffic. About 9% compounded rate of sales growth over the last decade. Earnings have grown ~13%. Always looks expensive compared to peers, but that reflects its enduring, sustainable competitive advantage. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.52%.

COST is a large consumer staples name, but it trades at a high valuation of 49X forward earnings. Recently, we have been seeing large-cap names, particularly more stable and defensive names, being sold for higher-growth stocks, which helps to explain why the consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare sectors have been underperforming recently. We continue to like COST for a long-term holding, despite its high valuation, given its subscription model, consistency and execution. It may underperform in a strong bull market, but over a long-period of time, it has performed exceptionally. 
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In addition to the 200-day MA, he looks at peaks and troughs. Look at the last low and the last high. The next high hit the previous high, so that's two relatively similar peaks. The stock may be below the 200-day MA (1st rule to sell), but it hasn't dropped below the last trough (2nd rule to sell). As long as it holds above the last trough, you're safe. 

Don't go into full panic right now. Hold for now; if it breaks that second rule, then get out.