AlcannaCLIQ.TOCOMMENTDec 11, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Apr 01, 2022. Market Open.
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. No longer backed by Aurora. Multiple attempts to redesign stores. Multiple products sold at steep discounts. Deteriorating margins. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
It was an income trust, and so they distrbitued too much money and didn't keep enough cash to refurbish their stores and stay competitive. That hurt, then they the oil price fell (they're based in Alberta), then they made some dumb acquisitions. Aurora Cannabis and the Bitove family have since invested. They've cut prices to wipe out competition, then bought that competition--twice. This has worked. Eventually, they will raise prices now that they've wiped out those competitors. Alberta law limits other liquor stores within a certain radius from existing shops, so they have a moat. And they're getting into cannabis. This stock is starting to move. (Analysts’ price target is $8.05)
Dominant position in Alberta liquor, which is competitive, so they're diversifying. Trying to acquire licenses in cannabis, which is an interesting opportunity. Liquor business in turnaround mode which will improve over next few years, but market isn't giving value to the cannabis division. Will have a strong position when the licenses come through.
Same-store sales, particularly in the US and to some extent in Canada, have been negative. Offset a little by some new bigger box wine stores they have been trying to open. However, this cannibalizes some of their other stores. Pays a very generous dividend of 7.68%. Unless things change around for them, he is not sure how long that dividend will be sustained.