Stockchase Opinions

James Leung Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund CHE.UN-T PAST TOP PICK Jun 30, 2006

(A Top Pick Jan 27/06. Down 13%.) Hurricane hit one of their plants last year so they had to undergo some downtime and raw material costs have gone up. Believes these issues are temporary. 14% yield is pricing in any risk factor.
$10.280

Stock price when the opinion was issued

chemicals
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HOLD
Yield is ~6%.

Looking at a 5-year chart, getting close to its 5-year high. Nice breakout above $10. If you take the height of the consolidation pattern (resistance was $10 - support of $7 = $3), and add it up again, you get ~$13, at least to start. That's what we're looking for over the shorter term. Then maybe it consolidates and may continue higher over the longer term.

WEAK BUY

Nice beat, upward revisions on 2024 guidance. Third consecutive guidance raised. Leverage keeps going down, balance sheet firepower keeps improving. Not that expensive. Payout ratio only 52%. Not highest quality, cyclical. Probably still upside.

He owns only a little bit, less than 1%.

HOLD

Recent pullback along with the market. Support around $10.50, which it is approaching. Unless that breaks materially (more than just a few cents, and more than just a few days), stay with it. You get your dividend, and chart looks fine.

DON'T BUY

He's traded this a few times. Is one of the most volatile stocks he's ever seen. Unpredictable falls and rallies. Doesn't like it. If you want to own, see if it holds support at $10.50; it's starting to break that. Again, hard to predict this. Maybe, $8.50 the bottom.

HOLD
Why the selloff?

Probably pulled back because of the 10-year treasury rising. Just increased dividend, that should continue. Coming out of a long turnaround. Core holding in his income fund. At $14, he'd probably trim; at $17-18, would probably exit. Yield is 6.4%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 29/24, Up 6%)

Will probably do reasonably well in light of tariffs, as the chemicals they provide for NA water treatment are rather nichey. Well-run company. Its decent and safe dividend makes investors more tolerant of rough waters.

BUY

A top pick last November, because it's one of the leaders in industrial chemicals in North America. There's a lot going on behind the scenes here. He didn't see the downturn in this sector as well as intense competition. Likely, shares won't recover until the economy picks up, but an opportunity now.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Everybody loves the dividend here. Made a really bad acquisition 10 years ago, company was punished. Off that bottom, it's been pretty impressive. Q1 beat by 15%, raised guidance. Really good progress on capital allocation -- dividend raises, small tuck-ins, buybacks. Trades ~4.7 EBIT to EBITDA vs. its normal 6.3 mid-cycle valuation. Add on dips.

PARTIAL BUY

Is okay to open a small position now, then especially if it breaks out to new highs above $12. The issue is that he expects a bigger correction in 6-8 weeks.

TOP PICK

It has had some issues but is a much cleaner operating company now, although it's not getting credit for it from the market. It is a specialty chemical company with some good assets. Pays a 6 1/2% dividend and is doing an active share buyback of 5%. There is also growth since it is investing heavily in the water business, treating waste water and municipal water, which also provides stability. It is so cheap you can get a good return.       Buy 5  Hold 2  Sell 0

(Analysts’ price target is $14.50)