Stockchase Opinions

Christine Hughes Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund CHE.UN-T HOLD Sep 17, 2014

This is a great company to be holding. Its main business lines are very, very stable. A very GDP type of growth, so it is not volatile. Because of this, the dividend is very secure. Made a sizable in-market acquisition last year and those synergies have yet to come through. You are earning 5% just waiting for the synergies to kick in.

$20.950

Stock price when the opinion was issued

chemicals
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BUY

Well-run. He owns the stock and debentures.

DON'T BUY

The second quarter was a beat across the board and they raised 2024 by 7%. He doesn't see a lot of growth and there are other areas more compelling. It is repurchasing in the near term. 

PARTIAL BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

CHE.UN is up 30% YTD, yet remains cheap at 12X earnings. It is a cyclical company with a lot of debt, with a fairyl weak earnings history. But it has improved over the past year, and debt is lower than the very high levels seen in 2019 and 2020. It had to cut its dividend in half in 2020 and has only raised it slightly since. It is expected to show about 7% EPS growth next year. It offers a 5.92% yield currently. We will give it points for its improvement, but with slow growth and a leveraged balance sheet, in addition to its cyclicality, it is still not one of our favourites. Of note, the stock remains at 50% of the price it was more than 10 years ago. 
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 18/24, Up 33%)

Also pays a big, fat dividend, which sometimes you need to be cautious on. Drawing a linear regression line helps the chart make more sense, especially with a volatile stock. Linear regression helps you see through all the peaks and valleys. Stockcharts.com is a good place to go for this, as well as most of the discount brokers.

TOP PICK

Very interesting company. Makes sulfuric acid, processes spent acids, produces inorganic coagulants for water treatment. A basic industry company, but one of the largest in NA in terms of asset production. 

A lot of people are focusing on semiconductors, but when you make those chips the purity of the sulfuric acid is extremely high, and this company is an integral supplier. This gives it a good competitive advantage especially compared to European peers, as energy prices in Europe are quite high. Should have a good run going forward. Yield is 5.8%.

(Analysts’ price target is $14.29)
HOLD
Yield is ~6%.

Looking at a 5-year chart, getting close to its 5-year high. Nice breakout above $10. If you take the height of the consolidation pattern (resistance was $10 - support of $7 = $3), and add it up again, you get ~$13, at least to start. That's what we're looking for over the shorter term. Then maybe it consolidates and may continue higher over the longer term.

WEAK BUY

Nice beat, upward revisions on 2024 guidance. Third consecutive guidance raised. Leverage keeps going down, balance sheet firepower keeps improving. Not that expensive. Payout ratio only 52%. Not highest quality, cyclical. Probably still upside.

He owns only a little bit, less than 1%.

HOLD

Recent pullback along with the market. Support around $10.50, which it is approaching. Unless that breaks materially (more than just a few cents, and more than just a few days), stay with it. You get your dividend, and chart looks fine.

DON'T BUY

He's traded this a few times. Is one of the most volatile stocks he's ever seen. Unpredictable falls and rallies. Doesn't like it. If you want to own, see if it holds support at $10.50; it's starting to break that. Again, hard to predict this. Maybe, $8.50 the bottom.

HOLD
Why the selloff?

Probably pulled back because of the 10-year treasury rising. Just increased dividend, that should continue. Coming out of a long turnaround. Core holding in his income fund. At $14, he'd probably trim; at $17-18, would probably exit. Yield is 6.4%.