Opinions
David Baskin
Cineplex Inc
CGX-T
PAST TOP PICK
Jun 12, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Not your highest-quality play. Trying to get approval to extend debt schedule. If approved, will add flexibility and improve free cashflows. If all goes well, may be able to reinstate dividend. But a lot has to go right. Pricey at 27x. High risk, but now would be the time to allocate some capital. A lot of the bad news is already out.
Don't own in a registered account, as you want to take capital losses if you're wrong.
Current share price reflecting value of business much better than during the pandemic. Attendance numbers continue to remain flat even with new steaming services. Expecting single digit growth of revenue. Brand name is very strong with large share of market. Cinema experience is still very good.
Trying to diversify. Q4 was steady, improving box office, strong roster of movies. Showing more dependable FCF. Tough stock in a tough industry. Very cheap at 9x 2026. Hasn't had steady earnings for years. Can have a good run when movie slate is strong.
Buy at $6-7, sell on strength. Dividend probably not coming back.
It was a darling, a great business years ago that generated tons of free cash flow. He once owned it. Then, it was supposed to be bought, but bad luck saw Covid hit and the deal died. Great management and still a good business that generates cash, but times have changed--there are many streaming services. They are paying down debt, which is a little high.
(A Top Pick May 17, 2017. Down 39%). This has been a disaster for him. The market has decided that people will never go to movies again, which is wrong. The number of people going to movies has gone down a little bit but box office revenue has been steady. Cineplex has additional revenue streams. They have rec rooms, like David & Busters in the United States, which is up significantly. In addition, Air Canada flights show movies from Cineplex, people watch Cineplex news feeds. Cineplex also gets more value add from its theatres by selling VIP seats where you can order a glass of wine and a sandwich. Cineplex is also hosting video game tournaments in its theatres, packing people in to play or watch. This can take the average ticket from $15 to $50. He thinks the investment public has gotten Cineplex wrong and thinks the stock will rise back to $40 or $45. He is still buying it.