Celgene Corp (CELG)

A disappointment, having fallen on a number of missteps including negative trial results and management issues. With biotechs, the odds of getting a drug out of trials into production is small. So, it's best to have a stable of drugs and some of them will go through. Doesn't know if this is at a bottom here, but it should do well long-term. Carries an attractive below-10x earnings multiple.

It broke down in a lousy earnings report late last year. It broke its trend line, and more importantly the level of support at $97 has been broken. There is a lot of air or space now below this price. He is concerned about the look of it from a technical perspective. It might pop back up to its previous support level.

Sticking with it. Valuations are too attractive to ignore. All they need are a few winning drugs and to offer proper guidance. Let's see some of their trials succeed--even good results will do. Their pipeline is too robust to stay at 8.5x forwarded earning. But management needs to regain credibility. (Analysts' target of $116.08)

(A Top Pick May 10/17, Down 26%) Was once a widely-owned, then despised, stock. New management came in, then there was a downrgade, then their Crohn's disease drug missed, then received an FDA letter for a mass drug is incomplete, which almost never happens. They've made a lot of mistakes in a short time. It still enjoys near-20% EPS growth. They have a dozen phase-two drugs in progress--a deep pipeline--but management has disappointed. That said, he continues to have faith in CELG.

Many growth opportunities but took some hits, falling from $150. Great opportunity now. FDA approval is coming up, so there's potential. 10.5x earnings. Could grow 15-20%. (Analysts' target of $116.32)

Boasts 10-11x forward earnings with a 15% growth rate. FDA trial approvals would increase investor confidence further, but they have a good pipeline of products. Likes it longer term.

(A Top Pick April 19/17. Down 14%.) This shot up to about $140, but a key new drug application was denied. That was followed by them announcing that their 3rd quarter was a little more difficult. They still have a plethora of new drug applications, and is still one of the hottest stocks in the sector. A very solid company.

(A Top Pick Nov 18/16. Down 16%.) Recently collapsed a bit, but still likes the name. Trading at 12X Forward Earnings with a 19% growth rate. That’s a .63 PEG ratio. They toned down guidance for 2020, and the concern is that they are going to be relying on their top cancer drug. Has been buying shares slowly. A cheap biotech name.

One of the larger biotech companies. The big drop last month was due to a halt in one of their trials where they were developing what looked like a pretty good drug which would have been a big market. He would stay away for another month or so, but longer-term, it is a pretty good company with a portfolio of good drugs in development and good drugs in the market.

(A Top Pick April 19/17. Down 18%.) Was one of the hottest stocks in the medical space. They have a plethora of new products in front of the FDA. It caught a cliff when 3 events happened. It was getting close to his target price of $150. One of the major analysts cut their price target which knocked it into the $130 range. FDA didn’t approve one of the new drugs knocking the price down into the $120 range. Missed a little on the 3^rd quarter, so it dropped into the $100 range. He still likes it and is still buying.

(A Top Pick Nov 30/16. Down 14%.) Reported earlier this month. Just prior to reporting, took a phase 3 drug out of the pipeline, that had a lot of promise. It was a drug that treated Crohn’s disease. It will build back some of the confidence, but it will take time. The return opportunities are good enough to continue holding the position.

This is revisiting old highs, which is a very bullish sign. In this case, it actually broke above its old highs. The current correction seems very healthy as long as it continues making higher lows. Add to your position, but keep a Stop at around $110.

(A Top Pick Oct 4/16. Up 38%.) One of the outstanding growth stocks in the US medical field. They have a plethora of new drugs coming out. Sales are growing at about 25% per annum. With the current earnings, the target price could move into the $165-$170 due to the growth rate. The company is more likely to surprise on the upside and another $1 of earnings could give you a $20-$25 a share. This could be a $200 stock. Still a Buy.

This has done extremely well. It is growing quickly. Has a good pipeline with 4 drugs that he believes could be $1 billion or more in revenue. The biggest property they own is Revlimid. They concentrate on cancer treating drugs. Not inexpensive, but is reasonably priced. Thinks that next year they will do $8 a share in earnings, less than 20X, and growing at a rapid rate. (Analysts’ price target is $156.)

(Top Pick Feb 22/17, Up 19%). They have a blood cancer drug. They are testing it on all kinds of other indications. They have the ability to double the revenues based on their existing products. It is the more growthy component of his portfolio.