Stockchase Opinions

Bob StodgellCitigroup Inc.CCOMMENTFeb 07, 2008

There is some awfully smart money buying into some of these major US financials. This is a great franchise. In this sector, buy the best assets you can and hold them for the long-term.
$26.70

Stock price when the opinion was issued

banks
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DON'T BUY
C vs. BAC

Of the two, he'd prefer BAC. However, both are distant runners-up to JPM.

WEAK BUY
C vs. JPM

Still a turnaround story. CEO has been simplifying the business -- cutting costs and focusing on strongest franchises. Strong quarter, beat on revenue and earnings. Outperforming peers. Cheaper, with more upside potential (but more risk if turnaround stops working).

JPM is one of the largest US banks, the gold standard. Leading across all divisions. Consistently delivers some of the strongest returns in the industry. Just reported strong quarter, record trading revenue, earnings up 13%, revenue ahead of expectations. Pulled back on slightly higher expense guidance. Higher quality name, trades at a premium (for good reason).

She's sticking with JPM, but C is a reasonable choice if you like the turnaround angle.

TOP PICK

It is a conglomerate bank and the most under-appreciated US bank. For the past many years it keeps getting knocked down after showing some strength. The new CEO is the first person to re-organize it. The money trading business provides liquidity transfer to every major corporation in the world. It is the only access for 90 or more companies and this is not replicable. It is a great business and has been building this for years. Other positives include improving margins.             Buy 22  Hold 4  Sell 0

(Analysts’ price target is $43.03)
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Maybe a bit over its skis. Q4 was impressive, with earnings up 56%. Improving story, has come a long way. At tail end of divestitures, so global imprint is getting smaller. Macro concerns, as with all the banks.

Compound annual growth profile still 11%. Trading ~9x PE for 2028, a bit less for 2027. Don't buy on this spike, but look for $118.

BUY

Having a bit of a renaissance under current CEO. Likes it very much because it's undervalued. 

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He owns this and JPM. Bought Citi because it was so undervalued. It's come a long way, more left in the tank. Banks will do less well in a softer economy, but they're safer than ever.

US banking sector had a downdraft on worries of credit problems. But private credit issues aren't with the banks -- since 2008-2009, banks can't lend to those types of businesses.

PARTIAL BUY

Leave some $$ in your technology sleeve to allocate to one of the end users -- an industrial (TT) or big US bank (JPM or Citi) or retail/logistics (WMT or COST).

BUY

They report Tuesday. It will probably rally the most among the banks next week. It has great momentum. The street loves it.

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TOP PICK

This comeback story has ripped around 55% in the past 12 months compared to JP Morgan at 19% and Bank of America at 12%. It trades at a discount to book value and to peers, while its ROE is climbing. Last January, Citi reported 8% revenue growth, +35% EPS and +14% net interest income over the previous year. Growth is expected to continue. The private credit scare has hammered all U.S. banks in the last two months which opened a buying opportunity that endures, despite the recent recovery. Citi pays a robust 2.24% dividend yield. You don't need to wait for pullbacks to enter as the turnaround story continues.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It was up on the month before, better than the market. Today's headlines of a rumoured regional bank buy (Citi denies it), gives you an opportunity to buy.

BUY

Is up today and yesterday, both down days in the market. The financial did gangbusters last year, so it's okay that they pause this quarter in 2026. In private equity, he doesn't see a systemic credit problem. It's a matter of time before financials gaining their pace again.

BUY
C vs. JPM

Likes US large banks -- will continue to benefit from deregulation and a sturdy economy. Owns JPM, but likes both names.

On technicals C is holding above the 200-day MA, making it stronger than JPM which is falling a bit below. C also has a lower price-to-book. JPM probably has more earnings growth ahead.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 18/25, Up 57%)

It was an obvious turnaround stock. The CEO gave Citi more focus and reputation. It continues to evolve and trades at a discount to their book value.

BUY

Fantastic job on restructuring. Cheapest valuation of the group. ROE is picking up.

BUY
C vs. SAN

He'd probably pick Citi. Slimming down its foreign operations. CEO doing good job with the turnaround. Very reasonable valuations, close to book value.

SAN is a good bank and well managed. Lots of exposure to Latin/South America and to Europe. The one to pick if you were really intent on international exposure. More volatile, as the economies it's in tend to be more cyclical.