Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD.TO)

Growth plans are getting traction. Looks better than before. Because of a jump in the costs of car repairs last year, people deferred getting those repairs. So this business is coming back. Also, BYD's scanning and calibration business is growing, a lucrative one they used to outsource. Are building their own locations and buying fewer businesses, which give them a better return.

Based in Winnipeg, yet 90% of business comes from US. Pulled back, though always priced at a premium, so valuation is not strikingly attractive. Seeing less traffic due to mild weather and a weaker economy. Needs to renegotiate insurance contracts for increased labour costs. Providing more in-house services, which requires more up-front investment. On her radar.

BYD has faced recent weakness on slowing same-store sales, labour headwinds, and increased upfront expenses from greenfeield and brownfield investments. Its valuation is expensive given the companies historical trackrecord of execution and successfully integrating acquisitions. We think a reversal of the factors mentioned can push BYD back up to historical levels. We believe that these will reverse and analyst outlook calls for EPS to double next year, so we will be watching the upcoming earnings closely.
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90+% revenue comes from the US. Cashflow attributes are very strong. Continues to acquire. There are only so many rollups he's willing to invest in. Quite reasonable, but just hasn't made the cut for his portfolio. Nothing wrong with the company, but slightly dilutive on the share count and insider ownership not high.

A somewhat weak year, but good outlook for growth. Could add on pullback, but there are better ideas out there.

Weak, while NA markets are at highs. Tremendous success in the past making acquisitions, integrating, and increasing margins. That hasn't changed. Once a market darling, people got carried away. Speed of acquisition has slowed. 

Going forward, has technology to calibrate the increasing number of sensors on cars, which smaller shops don't. Needs to accelerate earnings growth.

It is OK for buying an initial position. It is at a 52 week low but issues are temporary. It is acquisition oriented and spending by insurance companies, etc. is heading up. The P/E has been perpetually high and it is range bound so it is better for trading.

Well positioned in the space. Extremely low valuation for the good market share it has in both Canada and the US. Getting to levels where it would be a buying opportunity.

It is at the support level and this could be the beginning of a base. The last piece is a bit of a resistance. If buying put a mental stop at the last trough because you don't want to see it broken.

BYD trades at a premium valuation of 37X forward earnings, and so there is room for multiple contraction, which can help explain some of the volatility recently. We consider BYD one of the higher quality names in the TSX, and it does have some near-term headwinds, but largely we do not feel the story has changed. 

Over the past 10 years its total return CAGR has been 20%, over the past five years, 9.7%, and the past three years 5.4%. Its recent momentum is not great, and we could see lower prices in the near-term, but for a long-term hold we would be quite comfortable holding this name.
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He'd wait a bit. Results being challenged. Nice weather this winter meant fewer collisions and less work for them. Opening new shops. Margins on wages is tight because of inflation. Over 40x earnings, high valuation. Buy closer to a 52-week low.

The shares' 30% drop is extreme. This is a growth-by-acquisition story, and this number has fallen a little. During Covid, labour costs rose and their were insurance issues about reimbursements. But cars now use more technology, which leads to higher accident repair bills to fix cameras, sensors, etc. This means they can grow more organically.

EPS of 44c missed estimates of 71c; revenue of $786.5M missed by 0.5%. EBITDA of $81.7M missed b7 7.5%. Mild weather impacted demand in the quarter. Pressure on earnings is expected to continue. Claims and appraisal volumes declined. BYD's cost structure in place exceeded levels of demand, after a couple of very solid prior quarters.  Sales did rise 10%. Same store sales growth is not expected in the Q2. Certainly disappointing after last year's stronger showing. Shares are down the most in three years. BYD has missed before, and has recovered. Its longer term performance record is excellent. But, this quarter will put it into the penalty box for a period of time. We would still not view it as a  sell, however, with the decline already in place. 
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Boyd has good operations and is a consolidator of collision centres. Has grown from a small cap to almost a large cap. It is not super cheap and needs bigger acquisitions to move the needle.
A second part of the call was on Lumine. Buy it for the long term - trading close to CSU's valuation.

EPS of 93c missed estimates of $1.05; revenue of $740M matched estimates. EBITDA of $94M was 1% light. Same store sales were good at 8.7%, but below estimates (9.5%). The company blamed mild winter weather. The long term forecast (doubling the size of the business in 2025 from 2019 levels) remains intact. It added 78 (net) locations last year. Heading into 2024, same store sales growth is still positive but running below the 10-year average. The stock has been quite strong but will likely sell off on the 'miss'. 
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