Stock price when the opinion was issued
Weakness in share price not a reflection of rising gold prices. Stock trading a multi-decade low. Cost issues, and inflation a challenge for the business. Current valuation presenting a buying opportunity. When gold stocks begin to rally, it will be initiated by a series of interest rate cuts by US Fed. Good time to buy.
The 4% dividend is sustainable. Can grow around 10%. Is highly diversified. The next leg of growth comes from their Sabina asset. Not a large cap gold stock, but will see far better upside, leveraged to the gold price. Is some execution risk in their northern Canada project (due to extreme weather). Are fully financed and the balance sheet is solid.
Longtime shareholder and friend of founder/CEO. Behind schedule and over budget on mine in northern Canada. Very remote location, logistically challenged. If that can get resolved, expects stock to be much higher. Stock's extremely cheap from a sum-of-the-parts point of view, but there is completion risk (which, ironically, you can't quantify until you complete the project). Market has overstated that risk.
Rest of company's in fairly good shape. Punished because main asset is in Mali, lots of political turmoil.
It is a reasonable size. It has a pretty big PE. It is not free cash flow positive. The big call is where you think the price of gold is going to go. The rising deficit of the US is significant, 5% of GDP. Overall gold at the moment will reflect concerns about inflation. The price has not driven producers. This stock is reasonably priced.