Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

A great small cap pick. Did well with getting a deal with the Metis for their play. Needs the Clearwater play to bring interest. Leverage is too high so this play will help them. Theoretically a 90% upside.

It gives you leverage to WTI oil. About 25% of their production is heavy oil. Like many oil companies in 2021-22, BTE is reducing debt as we caught in 2020 with too much debt. What hinders their upside is that they've hedged a lot of their production--50% of it is capped at US$52 per barrel. BTE still falls in the top 20% of beta to WTI upside, but not as much as a heavy oil producer like Meg Energy. Could oil stocks return to highs 4 years ago? Anything is possible, he supposes, but he doesn't think the market will go to highs until investors see more stability or concrete outlook in the oil market in the next 12-24 months.

Established a 6% weight at $1.28. The hope is their appraisal results from the Clearwater play is positive. Potential $440M potential de-risk value that is worth half the market cap. Most people are not aware they are pursuing this. An inefficient market where you can make profit. Trading at 3.5x next year enterprise to cash flow at $60 oil. Target multiple is 6x. At $70 oil, you can look forward to $3.60.

(A Top Pick Dec 19/19, Down 64%) It offers meaningful beta for increasing oil price. He thinks it will lag other names, especially since more and more investors favour MEG. He does not hold it.

There is debt load and the primary asset is not operated in Eagleford. The differentials have also shrank to 9$ today. The debt hurts them and the market does not believe in $50 oil. He would prefer MEG.

(A Top Pick Sep 09/19, Down 63%) When he picked this last year, he projected $60 oil and Baytex was paying down debt and buying back stock. He took the hit, selling it, and moved on. He'd rather be in pipelines or low-cost producers like Suncor or Tourmaline. Energy stocks have run a little ahead of the fundamentals now. Few energy companies are making money now in Canada or the U.S. Oil may any fall back into the $30s/barrel.