Stock price when the opinion was issued
Going back to 2008, chart shows a beautiful long-term channel, trading between book value and 1.5-1.6x book. Today it's at 1.6x book, so it's very expensive.
Be aware that the market's are also very expensive, and this one goes up and down with the market. What stands out is that about 1/3 of Buffett's portfolio is in cash. If an investor were buying cash, he'd want to buy it at book, not 1.6x book. So, discounting the cash, you find that the stock is 18% overvalued.
The 1/3 cash position gives investors a hint as to what they should be doing with their own portfolios. Cash is a call on cheap stocks in the future. Wait for an opportunity.
It's doing very well in this environment, given their cash level and reputation. But they trailed in 2023-4 when they were building that sword. A two-edge sword. If there's a recession, this will look very good, but if this is a typical correction and return to new highs, we'll see what they do to the cash. Buffett probably has one or two targets in his sights.
Best capital allocator in the world, and probably the best investor of all time. Sitting on a record pile of cash. Be cautious, as it's exposed to the equity markets. Built to withstand the storm. Long term, takes advantage of unique opportunities in the market. Well positioned to outperform the broader market over an extended period of time. High faith in succession plans.
He added to it yesterday, based on how it was acting. Support ~$500. Chart has beat the S&P in all timeframes. Massive cash hoard. In markets like these, why not get some help from people who have a great legacy track record? Even once Warren's gone, the successors will follow his guiding principles. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $514.33)FFH is in his Canadian dividend strategy. BRK.B is in his global strategy.
Both are insurance-driven companies that are partly holding companies. Diversified businesses. Breakup NAV (not that they'd ever be broken up) is significantly higher than current share price. And that makes both of these a buy. Both are in the lower-risk category of companies.
The end of Buffett's reign as CEO has been an overhang for many years, but it hasn't mattered because shares have performed so well. This is as good of a transition plan and exit that he has ever seen anywhere, at any company. Buffett painstakingly worked on this transition for years. Shares remain at record highs. He remains a forever shareholder. Buffett is the GOAT and belongs on Mount Rushmore alone. There's nobody like him.
"Expensive" in terms of price per share is actually becoming less relevant because you can now buy fractional shares through some of the discount brokerage platforms. He doesn't own, but would be comfortable doing so. Today's as good a day as any to buy.
Good investment? Yes. Buffet is retiring and will be missed. Many people have learned a lot of valuable and timeless investing lessons from him. Berkshire has done a great job of planning succession and governance well, so the successor will have a good start. If Greg Abel has the endorsement of Buffett, that's good enough for his firm.
Portfolio of robust and resilient businesses with wide, competitive moats, and demonstrated history of generating free cashflow and paying dividends. Don't read too much into the cash hoard. It likes to be cash rich and patient, so it can write the big cheques when opportunities come along when there's blood in the streets.
Exceptionally well diversified. He likes management teams who have a history of allocating capital well, good returns on invested capital and a good track record. This company is really the personification of all of that.