Stockchase Opinions

Stockchase Insights Bank of Nova Scotia BNS-T BUY May 24, 2023

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

EPS of $1.7 missed estimates of $1.78 and revenues of $7.93B missed estimates of $8.04B. Net income dropped from $2.7B in the prior year to $2.2B, but it made progress by building its liquidity position with double-digit year-over-year customer deposit growth. Its Canadian banking and International banking segments were impacted by normalization for credit losses and higher provision for credit losses, while its global wealth management segment saw challenging market conditions impacting its fee income growth. An increase in its provision for credit losses is a key driver in its declining profitability, which is due to a less favorable macro outlook and a challenging market in Chile and Colombia from higher inflation. Similar to the impacts from 2020, we feel that the eventual reversal of these higher provisions for credit losses will benefit BNS later, but for the time being its earnings are being impacted by a more challenging economic outlook. BNS continues to pay a strong yield of ~6.0%, and its valuation is quite reasonable at an 8.7X forward earnings. We would be quite comfortable with owning BNS here. 
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$65.660

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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HOLD

Liked it below $65, but recently sold up in the mid-$70s. Looking to add back in, but it has to be sub-$70. Risk/reward here is merely neutral, so it's a hold.

HOLD

New CEO refocusing on domestic operations and on growing deposit base as a source of funding. Will take time, but doable. Attractive valuation, in lower range amongst peers. Nice dividend.

Better to not hold only 1 bank; also consider RY, which is her favourite.

DON'T BUY

New strategy under new CEO made sense in theory, but devil is in the details. Non-controlling position in KeyCorp was a head scratcher. Sold Colombian business, but still invested. Show-me story. 

DON'T BUY

In his opinion, the only quality banks in Canada are RY and NA. Own quality. New CEO has done an excellent job. Results were very good, but had to raise loan losses.

BUY

Nice run, now having a bit of a setback. But that's OK, that's how it goes with the banks. He doesn't mind buying at these levels.

TOP PICK

Worst-performing Canadian bank over the last decade, and that's one of the reasons he likes it. New CEO has freedom to exit under-performing businesses, especially in Latin America. Proceeds are being reinvested in NA. Earnings poised to rise significantly next year as capital gets properly allocated. 

Not expecting outperformance. But yield is 6.11%, and with improvement in growth and other metrics should deliver at least a 10% annualized return for the next 5 years.

(Analysts’ price target is $78.08)
WEAK BUY

He sold ~40-50% of his position at $79-80. Now that it's dropped below $70, considering buying it back. Appealing dividend yield. Not sure correction is over yet because of credit cycle. May try to buy cheaper, but it's a reasonable entry point if you have a very long horizon.

Savvy new CEO's doing quite a decent job. Managing balance sheet well, but he's unsure about 15% acquisition of KeyCorp in US.

Unspecified

The question was on dollar cost averaging for BNS. It is a bank in transition and has had a lot of trouble in recent years. Pays a good dividend of 6%. In general Canadian banks always come back and can be traded.

BUY

Likes it. Their exposure in Latin America offers exposure to copper and other minerals. Management is shifting focus from Latin America to outside that area. He sees success here, and the stock is priced well now. The yield is generous and safe. This could be a core holding.

WAIT

Like other Canadian banks it is undergoing re-positioning itself for a turn-around. It has dialed back its overseas business and is now focused on Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. The Canada and U.S space is pretty crowded. It has acquired a struggling regional bank in the U.S.