Stockchase Opinions

Brian Acker, CA Brookfield Corp BN-T SELL Oct 24, 2023

Sell BAM and BN to buy Brookfield Reinsurance

He's very negative and expects 17% downside. No, negative trend yet, but doesn't like the Brookfield companies. Why are there three Brookfield companies in the index? $40.85 is his target.

$42.460

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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COMMENT
HQ moving to US.

Indicated a move of head office to US, but doesn't have to do with tariffs. They're global, yet Canada provides only a small percentage of earnings. Management believes a move would encourage more US-based indices to include it, thereby broadening its potential shareholder base.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Are shrewd operators run by a smart CEO. Definitely buy on weakness. He wishes he knew what they own, but they seem to own everything that is great.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 23/24, Up 66%)

A year ago, people were worried about its exposure to real estate. Management owns 20% of the company, so it behooves them to do well for shareholders. Cashflow monster. Management believes its real estate holdings and potential fees are undervalued.

BUY

A core holding in his Canadian dividend strategy. Incredibly well run by bright people for a long time. Sold off ~10%, but chart's done extremely well. Likes that CEO has bulk of his net worth invested in shares. Quality operation.

WAIT

Loves it, wonderful management. Ran up too much, too fast. Not surprised by pullback, as all the private equity firms have. If liquidity tightens up, these guys won't be able to easily sell projects, GAAP earnings will suffer, with lower near-term cashflow and profitability. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 18/24, Up 32%)

At Investor day last September it targeted expected distributed earnings at 17% compounded annually over the next 5 years. There's another possible target of 25%. It does not have much exposure to tariffs.

WATCH

He rotated out a few weeks ago. Seeing recent weakness in financials (with $$ also coming out of industrials and consumer discretionary). Chart shows a fairly major breakdown of support ~$78. Now the stock is rolling back up, so it's looking more encouraging. Downtrend line on the chart is ~$81-82, so we'll have to see what happens at that point.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 22/24, Up 26%)

A quality Canadian name, allowing Canadian dollars to access global markets. Their challenge is that they invest in private businesses, then sell them at a higher price. But all the current volatility has put those plans on hold. Not the end of the world--BN will continue to run those businesses.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 22/24, Up 26%)

Got stopped out at $77. Great company. Private equity is having a difficult time in this market, partly because so many have used leverage for deals and the cost of credit is going up.

TOP PICK

Typically, his Top Picks include a US name, a Canadian name, and an income name. Today all 3 picks are Canadian compounders.

Brookfield is a phenomenal, high-quality company. Will benefit from current environment. Roughly $160-170B of client capital to invest. Can grab businesses that come under pressure. Easy way for you to be counter-cyclical, sleep at night, they do the work for you. Yield is 0.7%.

(Analysts’ price target is $92.77)