Opinions
Greg Newman
BCE Inc.
BCE-T
WAIT
Feb 08, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Telco sector sees steady demand keeping it defensive, but not a growth rocket. Facing stiff competition, regulatory issues, underperforming the sector index. Cost-cutting and asset sales. Cheap. Juicy yield of 8.5%. If you're in it for the yield, and you can stomach the volatility, cost cuts could pay off in the long run.
The most-hated stock in the past year. Everyone expects them to cut their dividend, which is under review now. The worst is probably over. It remains a regulated utility with good cash flow, which is what investors want in this market now. So, BCE can do well by default. It doesn't take much good news or rate cuts to lift this stock.
Yield is about 12.2% right now, with talk of a cut; she thinks chance of that is greater than 50%. Institutional investors want the cut, retail investors don't. If cut, stock price would probably go up. If you have a very long time horizon, thinks you can do well. Likes its critical infrastructure.
Was doing a bit better this year, but then came off again. Stock may have reached a bottom. A bit further behind Telus in the buildout of fibre to the home. Telus announced potential sale of towers; if BCE were to do that, dividend wouldn't necessarily need to be cut.
He actually likes both. Looking at price action over the last few days, these names have held up rather well. Sector's bottomed out. Both names have high dividend yields, tremendous FCF, lots of opportunity going forward to buy back stock. Worst is over for the sector, phenomenal opportunity.
With BCE, you should anticipate a dividend cut; this would be fine with him, as it will free up $$ to reduce debt and possibly buy back stock. If that happens, it would be a positive rather than causing the bottom to fall out of the stock. Investment community wants it to cut the dividend, reduce debt, and undertake a better allocation strategy. Still throwing off significant cashflow. Too early to say if it overpaid for the Ziply acquisition.
Telus has done better, with better growth. Invested in other things to diversify its business.
Dirt cheap. Multiple is ~10-10.5x PE. Market's lost confidence. FCF generated is roughly in line with the dividend, but looks undercovered relative to earnings. If dividend were to get cut, would be a positive catalyst. US acquisition will suck cashflow.
People own it for the dividend, not for growth. Cash cow. If management retrenches, there's a path to getting a better multiple. Very little downside. Buy here if you want income.
Troubled. The business is becoming more and more competitive. Can't cover the dividend. Company claims that when massive fibre build is complete, dividend will be covered; most investors don't believe that. If dividend were cut, stock would go up. Yield is 12%.
He's a more aggressive investor than the rest of his team. He'd say it's a speculative buy now; BCE is not going away.
Relatively high yield. Defensive sector. Elevated payout ratio, rising debt, and weak growth outlook present too many risks. Hasn't done that poorly this year. 12-month price target of $34.75. If you're concerned, you could sell 1/4 or 1/3 as a sacrificial lamb.
Challenged sector for several years, mainly since interest rates started rising. Bond proxies that are pretty compelling when there's financial repression as we had from 2008-2022. You have to pick your spots. Likes Telus, but not the rest.
Pretty much a certainty that BCE will cut its dividend; it's more a question of when and by how much. Yield is now up to 13%; a screaming red flag from the market telling you that dividend is not sustainable.
Most people want to diversify. Temptation is there -- fat dividend, company will be around for years and years. He expects a dividend cut of 50-55%, DRIP may be stopped, more asset sales. Balance sheet and population growth have not been in its favour. Buy only a little bit down here ~$29.
His view is that if BCE starts aggressive measures to right the ship, the stock will actually rally.
BCE beat, raised dividend, but free cashflow problems and layoffs. Dividend is really good. Will probably go to $48 before all is said and done. When there's bad news, stocks take a while to fully bleed out. Doesn't mean there isn't good value here from a dividend point of view.
For TD, banks are a tougher story due to capital ratios and inability to grow. Best balance sheet, due to failed takeover bid in US. Between the two, he'd pick this one right now. But instead of a bank, look to MFC or SLF.