Stockchase Opinions

Scott Morrison BCE Inc. BCE-T BUY May 03, 2002

Has growth potential. Making important changes.
$26.000

Stock price when the opinion was issued

telephone utilities
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PARTIAL BUY
Retiring in a week. Invest entire RRSP of $300k at 13% yield for income?

Most people want to diversify. Temptation is there -- fat dividend, company will be around for years and years. He expects a dividend cut of 50-55%, DRIP may be stopped, more asset sales. Balance sheet and population growth have not been in its favour. Buy only a little bit down here ~$29.

His view is that if BCE starts aggressive measures to right the ship, the stock will actually rally.

WEAK BUY

Everybody has baked in a 50% dividend cut, but you will still receive a pretty good yield. Long term, the fundamentals work for the telcos, but this could take years. Meanwhile, collect the dividends.

DON'T BUY

No issue with defaulting on bonds from any of the big 3 telcos. For the equity side: not a lot of growth, price competition, CRTC always making new rules. 

DON'T BUY

Cashflow does not cover dividend, and that's why there's talk of cutting it. Personally, he feels they'll never cut it, since most people who own it are looking for dividends. Better opportunities elsewhere.

HOLD
Investor is 62, planning to retire in 2 years. Down almost 50%, 7% position in the portfolio. Dollar cost average down?

7% in one stock is way too overweight. Expects to see a haircut on the dividend. Management hasn't been making the best decisions over the last year or two. He's been in this name since mid-$40s, not happy, but hasn't exited.

Instead, use ZWU.

HOLD
Average down?

The expectation is for a dividend cut of nearly 50% starting this month. We'll see if that happens. Technically, shares are having a rough go below both the 200-day and 200-week MAs. Earnings growth is sub-standard, even negative.

So, no, he wouldn't add at this stage. At some point, things could turn around a little bit.  Yield is 13.3% (would still be attractive even with a 50% cut). If you own, you can hold.

HOLD
Dividend cut by 56%.

Sold MLSE sports, bought a cable provider in the US. As late as Christmas, management was adamant that dividend would not be cut. The business is very difficult as a legacy communications company. Have to rely on mobile subscriptions. Competition's not getting easier. Stock's moved up, perhaps buyers are excited about it again. Yield is 6%.

HOLD

It has cut the dividend but the yield is still attractive. It is probably fairly priced and needs interest rates to come down. You can hold but could also take a look at Rogers.

DON'T BUY
Recourse for dividend cut?

Price competition, so pricing power has disappeared. Profitability flat. Building out 5G network increased debt. Immigration has slowed. All that had a huge impact on FCF and ability to pay dividend. Latest acquisition doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Wouldn't touch. He owns Telus and CCA.

For a class action lawsuit, you have to get investors together and prove that there was intention to mislead.

WEAK BUY
Does dividend cut make this a buy?

Yield is now 5.8%, so still a decent yield. Won't be any dividend growth. Now more transparency on payout ratio, and partnership with PSP on Ziply eases financial burden. Could be a valuation gap up. A buy today is not for a short-term pop in the stock, it would have to be a long-term buy and hold.

All telcos are facing slowing immigration, competitive pressures, regulatory pressures. Over the very long term will be OK, as they supply critical infrastructure. If recession, nice place to be for stability and defensiveness.