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Bank of AmericaBACTOP PICKDec 13, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
Midterms shouldn't have a huge impact on money-centre banks, regardless of who holds the balance of power. Lower interest rates and a steeper yield curve are very constructive for the banks, and BAC is best able to take advantage of that. Makes its net interest margin prospects very good.
All banks were hurt somewhat by private credit worries and prospects of few rate cuts this year.
US banks haven't been performing as well as Canadian banks right now. Headwinds from slowing economy among the middle-lower class. Fear of private debt, as a lot of the big banks offer that type of fund.
What matters is direction of interest rates (lower means more business plus lower mortgage payments) as well as drop in USD (attracts foreign investors). Wait-and-see come May, when new Federal Reserve chair takes the helm. If rates are cut, US banks should come back to life.
Most banks have rallied strongly over last year and a bit, so yields have come down. As we look toward midterm elections, typically Republican governments are good for deregulation (allowing banks to invest more and grow faster). Strong business, especially as the IPO pipeline is opening up this year. Solid hold. Yield is 2.3%.
He owns MS.
Last fall, his team started to see the infrastructure transition to an end-user/earnings story. While they were trying to figure out which ones to buy, they just bought the XLF ETF. It did very well.
More recently, they got into BAC and JPM. These ones have actually embraced AI on the fraud side. Initially, AI was meant to do repetitive jobs faster and cheaper. But now with reasoning coming on, it can identify inefficiencies.
To his knowledge, 1 of every 2 households in the US has some sort of relationship or banking product with BAC. Amazing CEO. Great job increasing ROC and EPS. Underwriting is second to none. Domestic economy is really chugging along. Unless you believe the US economy is about to fall off a cliff or downgrade substantially, BAC will probably do well.
Valuation dichotomy between Canadian and US banks is not as wide as it was. He wouldn't say to sell BAC and buy Canadian, as they're different businesses. In a non-registered account, there's a currency issue and maybe a capital gains one as well. Probably more upside.
For people that need income, they need to own things that will give them a rising stream of income, to offset the impact of rising interest rates. This bank has a lot of levers. Higher interest rates certainly help them to get better net interest margins. Deregulation can help them on the costs side. Better economic growth means their domestic business improves. 85% of their revenues come out of the US. They have a wonderful Capital Markets and Wealth Management business in their Merrill Lynch division. It has 20% ROE. Trading at less than 1X BV. He is expecting significant dividend growth going forward, north of 20% a year. Dividend yield of 1.34%. (Analysts’ price target is $21.33.)