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Opinions Dennis da Silva
Athabasca Oil Sands CorpATH.TOCOMMENTMar 03, 2015
Dennis da SilvaStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 07, 2026. Market Open.
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Takeover offer, up 15% today. Doesn't know that another competitor will come in. The boardroom back-and-forth has likely already happened.
The deal is part cash and part stock. So you may want to think about whether you want to hold onto the stock, or take part cash and some CVE shares? It'll depend where your cost base is for ATH. He like CVE and owns it.
He's done very well with it over years. Is a long-term hold, because he's bullish oil as demand grows. At $70 oil, this trades at 6.2x PE with a fair PE of 8x. He targets 28% upside. At $80, ATH is a $16.60 stock or 52% upside.
Eric NuttallEnergy names have had a big pullback. Energy stocks are poised to push higher, and that rising tide should lift all boats. Better to buy the worst stock in the best-performing sector, than the best stock in the worst-performing sector. Energy will continue to see tailwinds over next 6-9 months. He'd buy right here, right now.
It is a large weight in their portfolio. Is a long term commitment but they have trimmed some. It shows visible growth, has a great balance sheet, and is buying back shares. Canada has the ability to add incremental pipeline capacity and Athabasca is well positioned to benefit from this and global thirst. It is growing organically and he sees 40% upside over the next two years.
Eric Nuttall
Thinks it's a double from here (not a 1-year target). Meaningful compounding of share buybacks over time. Roughly 35% upside next year at $80 oil.
Despite the runup, long-term upside warrants being exposed today, as long as you can ride with the volatility.
Eric Nuttall
What do you want to own today? Canada. Oil. Asset duration. Free cashflow. Share buybacks. This name checks off every single box. Still sees over 100% upside long term at $80 oil in this name, so he's trying to sit on his hands and not sell.
He'd have made it a Top Pick again today if he were allowed.
Eric NuttallThe high is around $8. It just broke above recent highs in the consolidation zone. Pretty important technical resistance is around $7. Likes it here, and doesn't mind buying at these levels. Positive, long-term trend on the 5-year chart.
Awesome chart, especially given how choppy crude's been. Crude picking up would be an additional tailwind.
In a post-shale world, Canada will receive a lot of fund flows. He took advantage of the Venezuelan selloff to increase his position weight in this name.
Eric NuttallA long-term hold. He's going to do his best to sit on his hands and never sell a share, as he sees meaningful upside over time. Ramping up current production, looking to start a new project. Once those both get going, has 40 years of stay-flat inventory (phenomenal).
Eric Nuttall
Massively buying back stock. Roughly 70+ years of stay-flat inventory. Plus, has probably benefited from sellers of MEG looking for a similar name. Bit of a premium valuation at 8.2x forward cashflow. Sees meaningful long-term upside, especially with his prediction for $80 oil.
Eric Nuttall
This is one of those companies that really got squeezed by the commodity fall. Unfortunately gas prices have worked against them in the Duvernay, where they are still in the process of improving cost efficiencies to make it truly economic and generate rates of returns that should be north of 25%-30%. Their other major asset, which is just steaming up and wrapping up, is their Hangingstone heavy oil project. The 2 things that you probably don’t want to own in a $50 oil and $2.50 gas environment, is an early stage, capital intensive gas project and a heavy oil project.