Peter HodsonAthabasca Oil Sands CorpATH.TOCOMMENTOct 25, 2013

Energy names have had a big pullback. Energy stocks are poised to push higher, and that rising tide should lift all boats. Better to buy the worst stock in the best-performing sector, than the best stock in the worst-performing sector. Energy will continue to see tailwinds over next 6-9 months. He'd buy right here, right now.

It is a large weight in their portfolio. Is a long term commitment but they have trimmed some. It shows visible growth, has a great balance sheet, and is buying back shares. Canada has the ability to add incremental pipeline capacity and Athabasca is well positioned to benefit from this and global thirst. It is growing organically and he sees 40% upside over the next two years.

Oil sands companies are in the process of being revalued, and all are growing revenues. An aggressive way to play the space. Committed to returning 100% of FCF to shareholders. Reducing share count, increasing production. Stock's behaving well.

Very positive uptrend, but under pressure today. His team expects a risk-on rally into July-ish, and when markets come under pressure after that oil should start to rally again. Use weakness in the next month to add energy.

Thinks it's a double from here (not a 1-year target). Meaningful compounding of share buybacks over time. Roughly 35% upside next year at $80 oil.

Despite the runup, long-term upside warrants being exposed today, as long as you can ride with the volatility.

A number of analysts whom he respects recommend it for its ability to grow. Doesn't think Iran war settlement will necessarily cause gas price to fall. Great properties. Valuation not fantastic.

He owns SU.

What do you want to own today? Canada. Oil. Asset duration. Free cashflow. Share buybacks. This name checks off every single box. Still sees over 100% upside long term at $80 oil in this name, so he's trying to sit on his hands and not sell.

He'd have made it a Top Pick again today if he were allowed.

The high is around $8. It just broke above recent highs in the consolidation zone. Pretty important technical resistance is around $7. Likes it here, and doesn't mind buying at these levels. Positive, long-term trend on the 5-year chart. 

Awesome chart, especially given how choppy crude's been. Crude picking up would be an additional tailwind.

In a post-shale world, Canada will receive a lot of fund flows. He took advantage of the Venezuelan selloff to increase his position weight in this name.

A long-term hold. He's going to do his best to sit on his hands and never sell a share, as he sees meaningful upside over time. Ramping up current production, looking to start a new project. Once those both get going, has 40 years of stay-flat inventory (phenomenal).

Is not bullish energy, but the Venezuela news won't effect oil that much. ATH is excellent in terms of quants: improving return on invested capital, from 0% in 2020 to 10% in the past 4 quarters. They have a clean balance sheet. Likes it. 

Is up 56% this year. It went sideways for the first quarter of 2025, then broke out. He likes energy. There will be volatility here, such as mid-October. Don't wait for a dip. Given the trend, buy now.

Massively buying back stock. Roughly 70+ years of stay-flat inventory. Plus, has probably benefited from sellers of MEG looking for a similar name. Bit of a premium valuation at 8.2x forward cashflow. Sees meaningful long-term upside, especially with his prediction for $80 oil.

Is benefiting from weakness in American shale. The Oil Sands have been overlooked for a long while; the Oil Sands have supply unlike much of the world which is and will face oil supply shortages. ATH has no debt. They will have over 50 years of stay-flat inventory. Have low or no growth, but will buy back as much as stock free cash flow allows. There is a take-put premium in the current share price. At $70 oil, this will trade at 11% free cash flow yield. He sees $80 oil in a year or more, but not for the next 9 months at least. Great managers.

Valuation is compelling, but offset by weak sector sentiment involving global macro economic concerns, tariffs, possible downturns. Trades at a very cheap 3x enterprise value over EBITDA, with 12% FCF yield. Watch the technicals and the macro trends for a turnaround.